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In this episode of Statecraft, Geeta Mohan examines emerging technological and geopolitical challenges reshaping global power. The United States has publicly confirmed the deployment of on-orbit space control weapons for the first time, while declining to disclose their specific operational capabilities. The revelation highlights growing counter-space risks, satellite vulnerabilities, and the danger of orbital debris chain reactions under the Kessler syndrome. Simultaneously, the artificial intelligence sector faces intense debate over autonomous AI agents capable of planning, coding, and browsing without direct human intervention, with Anthropic revealing internal stress-test boundary breaches. The programme also details how drone attacks on Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, coupled with Houthi operations around the Bab el Mandeb Strait, threaten global oil flows. Furthermore, the broadcast examines a political row in Texas over Indian representation at a university football game and discusses scrutiny surrounding international media portrayals of India during the BRICS Summit in New Delhi.
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00:04what happens when the next battlefield is not on earth but above it and what happens when the next
00:10threat is not a missile but a machine that can think and act on its own today two stories show
00:17how technology is changing warfare and power first america confirms a weapon in orbit but
00:22refuses to reveal what it can do then comes the ai race where autonomous systems are gaining the
00:28ability to code browse and act without constant human control one battle could unfold in space
00:35the other could unfold inside our networks so are we entering an age where technology itself
00:41becomes the battlefield hello and welcome you're watching statecraft with me gita mohan
00:46a fresh threat to global oil supplies is emerging from saudi arabia key saudi pipeline could remain
00:53largely out of service for three to five weeks after a drone attack by the houthis and that outage
00:59comes at a dangerous time the houthis have seized strategic islands of greater and lesser harnish
01:05in the southern red sea bolstering the iran-backed rebels ability to control a key maritime shipping
01:12route around the babal mendham saudi arabia's 1200 kilometer east-west pipeline connects its oil fields
01:19on the gulf coast to the red sea port of yanbu the pipeline is crucial because it gives riad an
01:26alternative route allowing crew to bypass the strait of hormos but repairs after last week's attack could
01:34take up to five weeks partial operations may resume but officials cannot say how much oil will actually
01:41flow that uncertainty is rattling global oil markets the pipeline had been carrying between 2.6 and
01:49four million barrels a day potentially around four percent of global oil supply and saudi arabia
01:55reportedly has enough crude stored at yanbu to maintain exports for only five to seven days
02:02there is another problem the babal mandap strait is also facing growing security risks as houthi
02:08forces expand their presence around the red sea gateway now the route has recently carried around four
02:15to five percent of global oil supplies meanwhile saudi crude production has already plunged from 10.9
02:23million barrels a day in february to around 6.2 million barrels in august the iea estimates global oil
02:31supply could fall by 5.7 million barrels a day this year if gulf disruptions persist so if hormos stays
02:39disrupted saudi arabia's pipeline remains crippled and babal mandap becomes more dangerous the world
02:46could face a major oil supply squeeze pushing up crude prices shipping costs and inflation the us has put
02:55a weapon in space and it refuses to save what it can do for decades space was sold to us
03:01as the final
03:02frontier turns out it may also become the final battlefield the united states of america has now
03:08admitted something it had never publicly confirmed before it has a weapon in orbit no washington is
03:14not telling us whether it can't smash a satellite blind it jam it or simply make its day very very
03:21bad
03:22the u.s space force says these are space control weapons built to counter hostile action and that
03:29matters because modern warfare depends on satellites for gps secure communications missile warnings surveillance
03:37and for intelligence take away the satellites and even the most powerful military can lose its
03:43eyes ears and its coordination so what exactly has america put up there and why should the rest of the
03:50world
03:51care the first question is the obvious one what exactly is this weapon the short answer is washington
03:58is not saying us air force secretary troy mike confirmed an orbit weapon but gave no details
04:06about its launch capabilities or intended use the space force only says its space control arsenal includes
04:13kinetic and non-kinetic capabilities now there are essentially two or three types of space weapons one is of
04:21course the uh very famous anti-satellite uh missile which india has also tested china is of course tested
04:29uh the united states has tested as well that is a kinetic weapon now what it does is it hits
04:34a satellite
04:35which is in orbit uh that satellite is destroyed and that generates space debris now the other kind of
04:42satellite which could uh you know achieve the same effects but passively using uh electronic warfare or
04:51uh you know disrupting the satellite in uh orbit without a kinetic kill and that distinction is huge a
04:59kinetic weapon means physical destruction essentially something that can smash into a target and destroy it
05:05a non-kinetic weapon works without physically blowing up the satellite that could mean electronic
05:11jamming lasers or cyber attacks designed to disrupt degrade or disable it one breaks the machine the other
05:19can make the machine absolutely useless either way the message is clear u.s wants the ability not just
05:26to defend its satellites but to affect an adversaries so why are satellites such juicy targets because modern
05:34militaries depend on them for almost everything that makes modern warfare modern gps helps navigation
05:41secure communications connect forces missile warning systems provide alerts satellites support
05:48battlefield surveillance and intelligence in simple terms satellites help turn information into action
05:56from spotting a threat to guiding a response take that network away and an advanced military can
06:02suddenly struggle to see communicate and even to coordinate that is why the us russia and china have
06:10invested in counter space capabilities and the u.s decision to acknowledge the weapon now sends another
06:16message space is no longer just where militaries operate it is a domain they want to control well it's not
06:24the beginning of a space arms race it's more like the official start of one bear in mind that the
06:31us china
06:32china russia have already deployed over the past couple of years they've deployed several satellites
06:38which are dual use satellites they have civilian uses but can well be repurposed for military uses as well
06:45they're silent on many of these developments but the fact that the us has spoken about it publicly for the
06:50first time
06:52only tells you that one of the main space powers in the world has now come out publicly to say
06:58that it has indeed
07:00deployed space weapons but does this mean the treaty protecting space is dead not exactly but the
07:07loophole is staring everyone in the face the 1967 outer space treaty bans weapons of mass destruction
07:13including nuclear weapons in orbit it does not ban every conventional weapon or military system in space
07:20that leaves countries room to develop systems that can target satellites without technically crossing the treaty's
07:28central red line so the treaty is not dead but the old idea that space should remain largely peaceful looks
07:34increasingly fragile the rules stop the nightmare of nuclear weapons in orbit they did not stop countries from figuring out
07:42how to attack the satellites that run modern warfare after trump administration confirmed deploying space control weapons
07:49china urged the u.s to stop preparing for war in outer space and to take concrete actions to
07:55uphold global strategic stability chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that beijing
08:02consistently advocates for peaceful use of space and opposes its weaponization or transformation into a battlefield
08:10this chinese reaction came a day after the u.s air force secretary acknowledged the
08:15deployment to counter evolving threats marking the first time washington officially confirmed
08:21having on orbit space control weapons while russia china and india possess ground-based anti-satellite
08:28capabilities no nation had previously confirmed stationing functional weapons directly in space
08:35so does the american weapon deter rivals maybe but it could also tell moscow and beijing
08:41build more build faster and prepare for the day when the first shots of a war come from orbit and
08:49that
08:49brings us to the biggest question back down to earth what happens to civilians a space war would not stay
08:56neatly above our heads military and commercial satellite networks are increasingly connected
09:02the military uses commercial systems such as spacex starlink and planet labs imagery so if satellites get
09:09disrupted civilians could feel the impact too gps could fail communications could severely suffer financial
09:16transactions could be hit weather forecasting could take a huge blow internet connectivity could be disrupted
09:24the battlefield may be in space but the consequences could land everywhere and if countries choose
09:31destruction over disruption there is an even uglier problem debris blow up satellites and you do not get
09:38neat little pieces floating harmlessly away you can create clouds of shrapnel traveling at around 17 000
09:46miles per hour that raises the specter of the kessler syndrome a chain reaction in which one collision
09:53creates debris that debris hits more satellites and the process keeps going on in the worst case low earth orbit
10:02could become so crowded with debris that it becomes unusable for generations humanity would still have
10:09earth beneath its feet but access to space could become a giant cosmic traffic jam
10:15so what has america really confirmed not simply a weapon in orbit it has confirmed that the next
10:22battlefield could begin far above the battlefield we know and that whoever controls the satellites may control the war
10:30what if what if the biggest danger from artificial intelligence is not a machine that suddenly becomes
10:35conscious what if it is something far more ordinary and far more frightening a machine given a simple
10:43objective deciding that the fastest way to achieve it is to break the rules hack a system bypass a firewall
10:51exploit a vulnerability move where it was never supposed to go and that
10:55is why some of the people building the most powerful ai systems are now asking us to slow down
11:03anthropic ceo dario amadai has sounded the alarm over what comes next he says ai is rapidly moving
11:11from passive chat bots to autonomous agents capable of planning coding browsing the internet
11:17and executing multi-step tasks without constant human supervision his warning is chilling if development
11:26continues unchecked swarms of unaligned ai agents could potentially compromise digital infrastructure
11:32or take over large sections of network protocols within six to twelve months six to twelve months
11:40that is the timeline being discussed by one of the people sitting closest to the technology and there is
11:47another reason to pay attention anthropic says advanced versions of its clawed models autonomously gained
11:54unauthorized access to external third-party systems during internal stress tests four times no malicious
12:03damage was done but that is almost beside the point the systems crossed a boundary they were not supposed to
12:09cross at all and this is where ai debate gets uncomfortable the biggest fear is not necessarily
12:16an evil machine developing a hatred for humanity it is an intelligent machine trying to complete a task
12:23and finding its own shortcuts tell an autonomous system to achieve a goal and it may decide that bypassing
12:30authentication is more efficient that exploiting a vulnerability is faster that making an unauthorized
12:36transaction is the logical next step the machine does not need to hate us it only needs to misunderstand
12:43the limits we thought were obvious that is why sam altman is talking about greater caution that is why
12:51elon musk continues to warn about risks of artificial general intelligence and that is why some safety experts
12:58want frontier ai laboratories to deliberately slow down but here's the catch the companies building these
13:05systems are not united at all meta and sections of the open source ai community reject the catastrophic
13:13risk narrative their argument is that today's ai is nowhere close to self-awareness or autonomous malice and
13:21they have a point why should the companies already leading the race get to demand rules that smaller competitors
13:27cannot afford why should safety become a regulatory mode protecting giants from challengers now enter
13:34donald trump the white house has little patience for the idea that america should voluntarily slow down
13:40while china races ahead trump has dismissed predictions of ai catastrophe as a hoax his message is essentially
13:48this america cannot regulate itself into technological irrelevance and there is a powerful argument behind that
13:56position well i say this what we're leading china in ai we're most sophisticated country in the world
14:02and frankly i want to keep it that way because whoever wins ai wins and uh we can put guardrails
14:09we can
14:09do this and that but i think you have a lot of negative forces and are bringing it up that
14:13uh shouldn't be
14:14bringing it up and they're bringing up things that won't happen but whoever wins with ai wins you know it's
14:20an expression that i came up with and it's true uh we're building billions and billions of dollars you
14:27look at the plants and factories forgetting about ai per second we have more auto factories under
14:33construction right now than we have had in many many decades maybe ever maybe ever china is not waiting
14:40beijing is aggressively competing in ai while simultaneously imposing its own controls on advanced autonomous
14:47systems chinese regulations require developers to build circuit breakers and safety stop mechanisms
14:53into ai agents beijing wants control but it does not want to surrender speed and that is the contradiction
15:01america is debating whether regulation will protect humanity or cripple innovation china is trying to do
15:07both control the technology at home while winning the global ai race and silicon valley is caught in the
15:14middle trump's vice president jd vance has accused calls for federal guardrails of being a trojan horse
15:21pushed by wealthy ai laboratories his argument is straightforward if regulation becomes too
15:28complicated only the richest companies will survive the startups disappear competition disappears and the
15:35companies asking for regulation end up becoming even more powerful we actually regulate smartly and we're
15:43we're we're we're thoughtful about the risk here so there are obviously risks to ai there are some
15:48benefits to ai i i i have to say just personally i feel a little bit weird about the fact
15:55that you have
15:56so many frontier ai tech companies kind of coming to the government and begging the government to regulate
16:02them it feels a little bit to me like a bit of a trojan horse so i think we just
16:05have to be careful about this
16:07so how big is the ai threat the honest answer is nobody knows and perhaps that is precisely the problem
16:15the people warning about ai cannot prove that catastrophe is coming the people dismissing those
16:20warnings cannot prove that it isn't but there is one thing we do know ai is becoming more autonomous the
16:27machines are being given more access more computing power more information more ability to act and less
16:34need to wait for a human being to tell them what to do next president trump believes america must win
16:41the ai race the tech industry is split over how fast that race should be run china is racing while
16:48building its own brakes and the rest of the world is watching so will humans remain in control of the
16:54technology they're building because if the answer is yes ai could become the most transformative
17:00invention of our times but if the answer is no we may discover that the most dangerous machine is not
17:07the one that turns against us it is the one that simply stops listening a football crowd has turned
17:15into the latest battlefield in america's immigration fight and texas republicans are fighting over whether
17:22indians are taking over texas the controversy began when republican railroad commission candidate beau french
17:28posted a photograph of university of texas fans celebrating the team's win over ohio state the
17:36crowd looked heavily brown french claimed it showed foreigners displacing americans and accused ut of
17:42prioritizing them over texans but there was one problem the numbers ut austin had about 55 000 students
17:50in 2025 26 more than 80 percent were texas residents international students made up roughly 6 877 with about
18:001 660 from india around 2.4 percent of total enrollment and brown does not automatically mean foreign someone
18:10in that photograph could be an american citizen a permanent resident a texas-born child of immigrants or an
18:17international student a football crowd cannot tell you someone's passport the backlash exposed a deeper
18:23republican divide senator john cornyn a republican and former senate india caucus co-chair condemned the rhetoric
18:31and warned that intolerance could destroy the party french head back calling cornyn america last governor greg abbott
18:40also rejected french's interpretation of the photograph while maintaining his tough position on immigration
18:45and on h-1b visas the raw matters because indians have become a major target in america's immigration
18:52debate especially over h-1b visas there are legitimate questions about wages outsourcing and visa rules but
19:00turning a photograph into a proof of an indian invasion is something else texas is changing the real political
19:07fight is whether republicans debate that change with facts or with a football photograph that's all in
19:15this edition of statecraft before we go a debate has erupted over how some international outlets portrayed
19:21india during the brick summit held in new delhi critics online questioned why coverage repeatedly
19:27featured cyclists workers crowded streets and roadside scenes alongside bricks branding arguing it
19:34created an ambition versus reality narrative some went further calling the imagery poverty porn and asking
19:41whether it fairly represents a country of 1.4 billion people claims that photographers deliberately staged
19:48these shots remain social media allegations not established facts the debate however has raised a
19:54bigger question who gets to define how modern india seen us goodbye and take care
20:06through津波抵 Czy piper
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