- 2 days ago
Drones over airports and military bases. A surge in cyberattacks on businesses. Even acts of sabotage. How prepared is Germany to face these threats? Our guests: Johann Schmid (German Armed Forces); Wilhelmine Stenglin (Table.Media); Jannik Hartmann (Military Expert)
Category
đź—ž
NewsTranscript
00:00War has returned to Europe, as a hot war in Ukraine, but also as a so-called hybrid war aimed above all at NATO countries supporting Ukraine, countries like Germany.
00:11Just last week, Munich airport was brought to a standstill on two separate days.
00:17The reason? Drones allegedly controlled by Russian criminals.
00:20And it doesn't stop there. Cyber intrusions targeting critical infrastructure, government agencies and businesses have almost become routine.
00:28In Germany alone, more than a thousand are recorded every week.
00:33Time and time again, experts point to autocracies like Russia, China and Iran.
00:38On To The Point, we ask drones, cyber attacks, sabotage. Is Europe ready for a hybrid war?
00:43Welcome to this week's To The Point. I'm Javier Arguedas. It's good to have you with us. Let's meet today's guests.
01:02Wilhelmine Stenglin is a security and defense policy editor at Table Briefings here in Berlin.
01:08Johann Schmid is a colonel in the German Armed Forces and an expert on hybrid warfare at the Bundeswehr Center for Military History and Social Sciences.
01:18And Janik Hartmann is a junior non-resident associate fellow at the NATO Defense College.
01:24His research focuses on hybrid threats to critical infrastructure and military mobility.
01:29To all of you, welcome. Thank you for being with us today.
01:34Johann, I'd like to start with you.
01:35Europe is expressing deep concern about these drone sightings, cyber attacks and sabotage cases in critical infrastructure.
01:43They seem to be independent, isolated incidents, but some experts recognize a pattern there.
01:49Do you see that too?
01:50There are certainly patterns behind that and drone operations, attacks, they fit perfectly into, let's say, the main approach of hybrid warfare, operating in various gray zones between war and peace, friend and foe, internal, external security, civil and military fields of responsibility.
02:13So, it's easy to use these tools to create ambiguity and plausible deniability.
02:22And for this reason, I would expect that this is just a starting point.
02:26However, these types of attacks, Wilhelmine, have been here and have been going on for years.
02:31Why do you think they are making the headlines now, these days, if they're happening around so long?
02:35Yeah, as you said, it's nothing new that we see hybrid operations, hybrid activities in Europe.
02:44But in recent weeks and months, there has been a ramp up of frequency.
02:50And the drones, I think, is something that's also very visible to citizens, which makes it ever more visible to the society.
03:00So, I think there's a ramp up in the frequency and kind of escalation, and we actually see and feel it more.
03:09Yannick, in one of your articles, you've said that these types of attacks could have broader targets, apart from just energy infrastructure, transport infrastructure and defense infrastructure.
03:20What are we dealing with here, then?
03:21Very much so, Javier.
03:23I mean, what we have been seeing in the news lately are predominantly air incursions.
03:29When you think of last year, it was predominantly maritime infrastructure that is targeted.
03:32But the picture of hybrid warfare spans way beyond that.
03:35I mean, as mentioned, maritime cables, pipelines have been a frequent target of these operations in the past year.
03:44But we are also seeing attacks on transportation infrastructure, thinking of concrete military corridors, train lines that are very much important for sending military aid to Ukraine.
03:54But also the defense infrastructure itself, attacks on military bases, drones flying over them, but also defense companies, their production facilities, as well as their executives who are getting increasingly targeted.
04:09We're seeing how broad this problem is.
04:11We're now going to focus on that challenge specifically.
04:13Many of these hybrid threats aren't really new, as we said.
04:16For a long time, they were downplayed or ignored.
04:19But now politicians seem to have realized they can no longer look away and that action is needed.
04:26More and more drones.
04:29Recently, European airports in Oslo and Copenhagen had to be closed after major attacks on infrastructure in both cities.
04:37The likely instigator, Vladimir Putin.
04:40Here, he mocks the commotion.
04:41I won't do it anymore.
04:43I won't send any more drones to France, Denmark, Copenhagen, or Lisbon, or anywhere else they might fly.
04:51Sabotage, hybrid attacks, cyber attacks, and disinformation campaigns on the Internet are on the rise.
04:58Experts estimate that there are more than 37,000 cyber attacks per day worldwide.
05:04New alliances and autocracies are forming against us and attacking liberal democracy as a way of life.
05:23Our free way of life is under attack.
05:29But classic espionage also continues to play a role within hybrid attacks.
05:34The employee of an AFD politician was recently sentenced to almost five years in prison because he spied for China.
05:42Hybrid attacks.
05:44How vulnerable are free democracies?
05:49Let's try and break that down.
05:51Johan, Vladimir Putin has accused the West of being hysterical when pointing to the Kremlin behind some of these attacks.
05:57Is there any proof that Russia is indeed the culprit?
06:02Well, many of the activities in the drone sphere, but also the attacks on the critical undersea infrastructure, for example,
06:11they fit into the picture of the Russian-Ukraine war and our Western support to Ukraine in their defense against Russia.
06:20So many of these activities, but regarding single events, it's always difficult to trace them back.
06:26Plausible deniability drones, the perfect means of hiding behind these activities.
06:33But what we also have to notice is that now we are aware about the drone threat and we have to do something against that.
06:43But that's hybrid warfare is about like an iceberg and you always see just the tip of the iceberg.
06:48Normally, you don't see the iceberg as such, but hybrid warfare is much broader and the big elements are not visible.
06:57So, for example, when the fifth column of our hybrid adversaries are entering Europe via weaponized migration routes,
07:08we did not really focus on that, but they are at least as threatful as the threat by drones.
07:16If there is, Yannick, an idea, a concept behind these attacks, a single one, if you will, what's the ultimate goal?
07:25I mean, those incidents that we have been talking about, they follow a, so to say, overarching strategy and some instances, very specific operational goals.
07:35But what combines all of them is, in principle, three sets of aspects.
07:40The first thing is that they are meant to test readiness and assertiveness.
07:44How fast is NATO in responding? How assertive will the response be?
07:48And is it perhaps accompanied by a change in policy?
07:51The second thing is that they are meant to sort the vision between members of the EU or NATO.
07:57You need to imagine that after every major incident, there is an internal debate over how we should respond.
08:03And some member states argue for a more assertive, some for a more defensive posture.
08:07And the third aspect is that these attacks aim to have a psychological effect, to create a feeling of uncertainty among the population that, despite geographical distance, one can be targeted.
08:18And at the same time, this, of course, undermines the credibility in defensive institutions and alliances.
08:25Do you think that is working, Wilhelmine, the psychological aspect of it and also the assertiveness that we see when NATO reacts to these attacks?
08:35Yeah, maybe to add to all these three points, I would say you can also look at who has an interest in the consequences of those things.
08:43And one of the goals here is also to distract from the actual front line, which is in Ukraine.
08:52And we can see now that the headlines in recent days have been all about drones in Germany and in other European countries, but they haven't been as much about Ukraine and what's happening there.
09:03And that is not because Russia hasn't attacked Ukraine in recent days.
09:08That's just because we have been distracted.
09:09And I think that's a very important point, which adds to what Yannick has already said.
09:13And when it comes to the psychological consequences, I think, yes, we can clearly see that society is worried about what's happening right now.
09:25And that also sparks into trust in governments.
09:30And that's very concerning.
09:32We certainly have a feeling here that we're not at peace, as the German chancellor said.
09:36And, Johan, you have claimed that one cannot separate classic warfare from hybrid warfare anymore.
09:42So if we're being attacked, would you expect European countries to, say, sabotage Russian infrastructure too?
09:47Well, as you hint, we are, or hybrid actors are operating on purpose in gray zones, gray zones between classical categories of order and responsibility.
10:02For example, the big interface between war and peace, or between friend and foe, with the frenemy as a particular challenging element in between.
10:14Or thinking about the complex interface between internal and external security, with many different players, state players, non-state players, military, civil.
10:24And, of course, the interface between military and civil fields of responsibility, between state and non-state actors, between reality and truth and fiction and propaganda.
10:35And operating at these interfaces, this is the way how hybridity is created in the first place, in order to paralyze the situational awareness and decision-making processes in the heads of the respective victim or defender.
10:52So this is the methodology which is followed, and Russia is an actor behind that, with a strong military footprint.
11:01But there are many other actors behind as well, state actors, non-state actors, and sometimes they are supporting each other as proxies.
11:11But can the West respond to that with similar strategies? Is the West responding with similar strategies?
11:17The West need the West, Europe, and the single countries, because the most responsibility relies with the countries to protect their societies, their critical infrastructure, to strengthen their military.
11:28So, and what is necessary is a comprehensive hybrid defense or hybrid resilience building, defending on the military frontier, of course, but also defending and preparing and making resilient our critical infrastructure
11:49and our society against the non-military hybrid attack vectors, weaponized migration, ideological radicalization, criminal activities, and the build-up of parallel societies, which have no loyalty to the state in which they are living.
12:08We're definitely going to take a look at what can be done to target these challenges.
12:13However, Janik, I would like to dwell on the fact of the societal aspect of this, because misinformation and disinformation are a huge risk as well, that we also have to tackle when we talk about hybrid warfare.
12:24It is the top risk, according to the World Economics Forum Global Risks Report 2025, topping even wars and climate change.
12:32What role does it play in the hybrid warfare, and are we ready to face that?
12:37Well, disinformation campaigns are certainly one dimension, and we see huge influences that, for instance, have effects in election campaigns or in basically creating a feeling of distrust among the society, not knowing anymore what is real, what information can be trusted.
12:54And this is exactly where we need to increase resilience among members of our society.
13:00And this is very much critical.
13:04I mean, judging from other countries, for instance, the Nordics, the Baltics, their society appears to be much more ready to face threats, to face acts of aggression or acts of sabotage than we are.
13:18So this is something we very much need to improve.
13:20Would it help, Wilhelmine, if societies work stronger or better in making these attacks visible, informing the public about what's going on?
13:31Because sometimes these attacks remain undisclosed to the public.
13:34I think, yes, I think informing and communicating about what's happening, not in a way of spreading fear, but in a way of communicating we are aware and we have control over things that are happening.
13:47We're seeing them and raising awareness also what we can do against it.
13:53So I think it really starts by not only giving a speech, as Friedrich Merz did and said, but also sending people to schools, businesses, informing what are the threats that are there and what can be done against it.
14:07I think that's something that's really, really important.
14:09What can be done against it?
14:10That's the big question.
14:11NATO already has ways to defend itself against drone flights, for example, but the effort often seems out of proportion to the actual incident.
14:19Stopping a single drone can require massive resources, while the threat itself may be small.
14:24That imbalance raises tough questions.
14:27How can NATO protect its members without exhausting its defenses?
14:36Recently, NATO missiles costing tens of thousands of euros shot down cheap Russian drones over NATO territory in Poland.
14:44Drones will soon be rendered ineffective using much cheaper laser systems.
14:49The German interior minister wants to amend the Air Security Act.
14:53He's calling for a drone defense center and is developing partnerships.
14:57The aim is to ensure that drone defense technology is also developed more intensively in Europe, in cooperation with partners from Israel and Ukraine.
15:10These Israeli drone defense systems are a cost-effective way to shoot down aircrafts.
15:19The German Armed Forces already operates its own Cyber and Information Domain Space Command to combat digital and hybrid attacks.
15:27Data exchange between intelligence services in NATO and the EU will also be improved.
15:31How could both bodies better defend themselves against the increasing threats posed by hybrid attacks?
15:37We're going to try and take a look at possible solutions to all of this here.
15:44Yannick, Europe is considered weak when it comes to protecting its skies from drone attacks, for example.
15:49What deficiencies do you see and what could pose a threat that makes the solution so difficult?
15:55I mean, what we've been seeing in the video right now is a key element which is creating resilience in various domains, not just the Air Domain.
16:04And to be frank, this is very much important, but there are two key aspects to this.
16:08And the first thing is that you cannot create resilience in every domain we are talking about, in every domain that is experiencing sabotage or hybrid warfare.
16:16Think of train lines, for example, critical cables that run next to them are often kilometers long.
16:21You cannot simply build a fence around them.
16:23And the second aspect is that in those areas where you can increase resilience, Russia is likely to shift to a different strategy.
16:31So, for instance, last year we have seen predominantly attacks in the maritime domain, pipelines, cables.
16:37And in response, NATO launched a very successful mission, a Baltic Sentry.
16:41And we saw instances decrease, and now we have a spike in violations of air spaces and drone attacks.
16:49So, what I think we really need to have, and I'm speaking from my personal opinion, not my institutional capacity, is that we need to raise the cost to Russia.
16:58And NATO, for instance, should signal clear red lines that they can enforce, and if violated, will lead to severe consequences.
17:07And we have seen good examples of this, for instance, Polish, Poland's defense minister, two weeks ago said that no further incursions will be tolerated, and also none happened since.
17:17And I think this is a good example we should follow.
17:20Johan, do you think Germany is also responding accurately and in the right way to these attacks?
17:27Because we don't see very much of an aggressive stance.
17:31Well, we have, with the so-called Zeitwende, we are moving in the right direction on the military field.
17:40It's a long way, but we are moving in the right direction.
17:43On other domains, protecting, for example, the society.
17:47The society is largely unprotected against non-military hybrid attack vectors.
17:52So that's probably our biggest hybrid vulnerability.
17:57And the other point would be protecting our critical infrastructure against the threats you have shown on the screen just.
18:05There we started.
18:06Nobody would argue against this, but we are just starting.
18:11There are some good elements to see that the companies responsible for critical infrastructure are taking more responsibility.
18:22So that's a good step in the right direction.
18:25Just to be clear, what does it mean, practically speaking, say, a power plant?
18:29What do you have to do to protect it?
18:31For all critical infrastructures, we have to focus on defense against drones.
18:38And it's not only because of Russia, because everybody, also non-state actors, individuals, can go into a shop, buy a drone.
18:47It's a bit questionable why it's allowed to buy drones and destroy or, let's say, target an airport.
18:56Not destroying the airport, but hampering the flights and so on.
19:05So this would be probably the single, from a technical standpoint, the single most important point regarding the protection of our critical infrastructure.
19:16Maybe if I can add to that, because actually there's a law right now in the parliament that's to increase the physical safety of critical infrastructure.
19:27And the government has agreed on that a month ago.
19:32And it doesn't include anything on drones.
19:35And it was on the minister's table before that it should include some paragraphs on drones, but it wasn't included.
19:42And now we can see the interior minister acting on all these things, announcing a defense center against drones, stuff like that.
19:51But only after we've seen the headlines increasing.
19:55So I think this is one of the major problems that we have, that we are only reacting instead of proactively thinking about what can happen next and what should be done against it.
20:04And there's another risk factor that I wanted to dwell on, because experts assume that many of our countries are already infiltrated with spies and other actors for other states that are already here.
20:15Is Germany, for example, aware of this danger and is it reacting enough?
20:21I think this is something that we have seen and it's just another layer of the hybrid warfare we're seeing.
20:31It's the so-called single-use agents that are used by Russia to, again, increase insecurity among society, to spread the feeling that everyone could be a danger.
20:46And I think it's one of the problems that we need to tackle and that have not been tackled enough yet.
20:53We also have to talk about cyber attacks.
20:55Janik, they also seem to be performed quite easily.
20:58At least that's the impression many people have.
21:00What measures are in place and what is working to protect critical IT infrastructure?
21:04I mean, to be frank, those instances that we have been seeing with cyber attacks,
21:10they can have profound consequences, as we've, for instance, been seeing at the Berlin airport last week.
21:17However, our digital infrastructure has also become more resilient over the past years.
21:22And we see these instances decrease.
21:24More sophistication is needed to cause sufficient harm.
21:28And in that domain, at least in my opinion, we are more resilient than compared to other domains.
21:33When it comes to misinformation and disinformation, Wilhelmina, the last few elections where Russia was accused of trying to interfere with electoral processes actually saw pro-Russian candidates lose.
21:45Is that a sign that measures and actions against misinformation are working?
21:50I think we still have to see that it was closed elections and that misinformation was spread and that we see that some of the measurements worked.
22:03But it's nothing that we can, it's nothing that will not be a problem in future anymore, that we have solved this kind of problem.
22:11And I think, just adding on what Janik just said on the cyber attacks, yes, we've increased resilience.
22:18But again, there's a law in Germany that is there to increase cyber resilience for economies, but also for the state.
22:28And it excludes some of the state infrastructure, which is actually a problem, because this is something that belongs to critical infrastructure, in my opinion.
22:38And so, so we, there's still a lot to do on cyber resilience and on misinformation, both.
22:45Do you think Germany is quick in reacting with legislation for all of these measures that are needed?
22:51I think we're a democracy and we have very complicated political situation again in Germany, even after the breakdown of the government before.
23:00And quick is not something that democracies usually are, and that really is something that is of concern.
23:10How liable are we because we are a liberal democracy, Janik?
23:13I mean, I very much agree with what Helmina said.
23:17I mean, taking, tackling these problems just takes time.
23:22And the problem is that we are just confronted with a mass array of these challenges.
23:25And just looking across the Atlantic, we also are uncertain how secure the backing is that we have.
23:32For instance, if Poland would decide to shoot down one of Russia's fighter jets, there would be an internal debate over how secure U.S. backing would be.
23:39And all these questions make concrete answers, and especially fast answers, that are decided unilateral, very, very difficult to achieve.
23:47In that sense, Johan, what would you want your leaders to improve when it comes to tackling these challenges?
23:55Three points.
23:56First of all, creating a multidimensional hybrid situational picture, including all relevant domains and dimensions.
24:07The military, but also the information sphere, the economy, the society.
24:13Second, closing down hybrid El Dorado in Europe.
24:18That means reducing the space for hybrid actors to act within our societies, for example, to infiltrate us by weaponized migration, just as an example.
24:29And third, improving our capability of anticipation.
24:36So, making ourselves better in anticipating unorthodox hybrid attack vectors, and also better understanding our own vulnerabilities in the society, critical infrastructure, and also on the military domain.
24:50We have time for one closing question, and I would throw the question of the show to you, just to close, starting with you, Wilhelmine.
24:59Is Europe ready for a hybrid warfare?
25:01I think it needs really a change of mindset to be ready for this kind of war that we're seeing right now, and I think there's still a way to go.
25:10Yannick?
25:11We need to increase the cost, we need to signal it publicly, and we need to apply it consistently.
25:16Only this will force Moscow to calibrate.
25:19Johan?
25:20We need a comprehensive understanding about hybrid warfare in order to bring all relevant actors on board in building resilience and defending ourselves against these kind of threats, and actively countering when it makes sense.
25:35It seems like there's a long way to go.
25:37Thank you, all three of you, for this discussion.
25:39Of course, also thank you for watching.
25:41Remember, you can always watch our shows on YouTube.
25:42Just search for DW News and the latest To The Point episode.
25:46I'm Javier Argueiras.
25:47Until next time, take care and goodbye.
25:48We'll see you next time.
Recommended
3:26
|
Up next
1:07
20:44
0:40
2:49
1:22
5:18
3:58
Be the first to comment