Days after the BJP and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) announced an alliance in Tamil Nadu to take on the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in next year's polls, Chief Minister MK Stalin attacked the NDA partners, throwing an open challenge.
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00:00Hello and welcome to this week's political stock exchange.
00:03What impact will the AIDMK BJP alliance have on the political fortunes of different parties in the 2026 assembly elections in this crucial South Indian battleground state?
00:18That's my top focus on the news show.
00:24After a show of strength.
00:30EPS flexes muscle in Tamil Nadu.
00:36Can EPS lead alliance effectively?
00:43Will AIA-DMK BJP dent to DMK?
00:51Who is the preferred Chief Minister choice?
00:55The Tamil Nadu sentiment tracker.
00:57That is our political stock exchange.
01:00Political temperatures are soaring in Tamil Nadu.
01:06Days after the BJP and the AIDMK finalized the alliance for the upcoming assembly elections,
01:11E. Palani Sami has set the cat amongst the pigeons by declaring that there will be no coalition government in the state.
01:16Over the next hour, we will decode the impact of the BJP-AIDMK alliance on Tamil Nadu politics.
01:22But first up, here's a look at all that's been buzzing in Battleground Tamil Nadu.
01:27From a show of strength.
01:31From a show of strength.
01:32To a muscle flex.
01:36To a muscle flex.
01:50The BJP-AIA-DMK realignment in Tamil Nadu seems to be having some starting trouble.
02:11After former Chief Minister, E. Palani Sami, other AIA-DMK netas have also declared there will be no power sharing with the BJP if the NDA is voted to power in 2026.
02:24The BJP-AIDMK's
02:35The BJP-AIDMK's
02:37All our leaders said is, EPS will lead the Alliance in Tamil Nadu
03:06and the willing parties are there to come and join with this leadership and the direction.
03:11The first party to join so is BJP and many more parties are likely to come.
03:15Despite AIA-DMK's aggressive posturing, the BJP is playing it cool.
03:21My brother, we have a lot of people in India who have announced it.
03:29We have a lot of people who have been able to do the same thing as well.
03:32The divergent views of the NDA allies has given some ammunition to the DMK.
03:46There won't be any BJP and DMK alliance going on.
03:50That is a well-known fact because what the BJP is doing is performing anti-Tamil activities.
03:56They are against the Tamils. They are against everything.
03:59Meanwhile, DMK boss and Chief Minister MK Stalin continues to escalate his fight against the centre.
04:07In the latest, he has fired a fresh salvo against Home Minister Amit Shah.
04:11The
04:24new alliances old political rivals and a state heading to post state of war Tamil Nadu is
04:49hotting up bearer report India today the big political story this week the rapprochement
04:57between the AI DMK and the BJP in Tamil Nadu the alliance of the NDA back again in this crucial
05:05southern state due for elections in April May next year what are voters in Tamil Nadu thinking of the
05:13AI DMK BJP alliance for perspective on this we commissioned C voter to ask a bunch of tracking
05:21questions on voter perception around different things to do with this alliance and its consequential
05:27impact on Tamil Nadu politics to talk about the results I'm joined on this broadcast by Narayanan
05:33Tirupati he's the spokesperson of the BJP in Tamil Nadu also the state vice president we have
05:40Kobayi Satyan spokesperson of the AI DMK Salim Dharani Dharan is a spokesperson of the DMK I
05:47have Sumanth Raman well-known political commentator and analyst TS Sudheel joins us again well-known
05:53political commentator and analyst now Yashwan Deshmukh the founder director at SeaVoter so I
06:00have a whole bunch of questions let me dive straight to the first how likely do you think the AI DMK BJP
06:08alliance will be able to defeat the DMK lead alliance in the 2026 Tamil Nadu assembly elections
06:17can the AI DMK DMK alliance beat the DMK lead alliance that's the question so if you look at
06:25the number of people who say this is very likely to happen 37% 37.7 almost 38% of the respondents say
06:33this is very likely to happen somewhat likely is 12% of the overall respondents somewhat unlikely
06:427.8% of the respondents 33.7% of the respondents which is almost 34 say it's very unlikely and about
06:509% of the respondents are confused they can't say so really the big numbers are very likely which is 38
06:58very unlikely which is 34 so 4% gap but 9% undecided and then you've got some who think it is somewhat
07:06likely which is 12 and somewhat unlikely which is 8 which can switch on both sides but what this means
07:13is and this is essentially why why Satyan would be smiling and why Salim Dharani Dharan would be concerned
07:21is because this if you compare this with the data we had earlier where the DMK seemed to be in the lead
07:28for the first time it seems TS Sudhir that you've got in the first response and I'll have many more
07:34questions and answers in just a moment in the first response it seems voters seem to appreciate the
07:40significance of this realignment in Tamil Nadu politics absolutely I think on paper the NDA
07:47uh definitely looks very strong uh also a factor in uh that there will be severe anti-incumbency there
07:54is severe anti-incumbency against the DMK like it would happen with any government which has been in
07:59power for the last four years uh so that will definitely be a factor that would help the NDA
08:03the fact that the two have come together they did reasonably well after five years of anti-incumbency of
08:08the AITMK 2021 even though they lost power it didn't it didn't translate into number of seats but in
08:14vote share it was not so bad uh one in every three voters voting for the alliance was not so bad
08:20uh so that would bring some comfort but the real challenge would be how would this synergy again
08:25translate uh in 2026 into votes given the fact that they had a bitter parting in 2023 we haven't seen a
08:32honeymoon period taking place after a remarriage of the same partners so will that happen now and
08:37there is a certain unease definitely in this alliance the fact that at a party party saw me a few
08:42days after amishah's press conference in jenny went out to say that it won't be a coalition government
08:47basically to say that that's something which will be decided later that's something which amishah had
08:51also kind of hinted at during his press conference but the fact that at a party party swami said it in
08:57so many words conveys a sense of unease that is there in this alliance and that is something which
09:02both parties will have to sort out over the next one year at a party party saw me of course has been
09:07given the leadership but doesn't that confuse the voters because if he says we are part of the
09:11alliance but they won't be part of our governance architecture you know what's the message he's
09:15sending out to voters well tamiladu has always had that arrangement see even in the uh the india block
09:22the congress party which has been fighting the election along with the dmk has never been part
09:26of the dmk sarkar whenever it has come to power in tamil nadu so that has been an arrangement which has
09:31been there in place in tamiladu for the past many elections past many years so that wouldn't surprise but
09:37given the fact that amisha had said that it will be a military sarkar in 2026 if the nda comes to
09:42power and at a party party saw me saying that no it won't be that seems to indicate the unease and
09:49both nila nadiendran who comes from the aidmk alumni and now heads the bjp in tamiladu and at a party party
09:55saw me to have exactly one year to iron out all these differences so that they look like one concrete
10:01block where they go to the people in 2020 okay how do you perceive adapadi palani saw me as the
10:07leader of the aidmk bjp alliance for the 2026 uh elections very effective capable of leading the
10:16alliance to victory i'm going to focus more on the overall total numbers because those are what
10:20matter most say 32 percent of the respondents um moderately effective faces challenges is 21
10:29of the respondents moderately ineffective lack strong appeal say 16 percent of the respondents
10:35very ineffective vulnerable as the alliance leader say 24 can't say is about eight odd percent the big
10:42number there is 32 percent saying he's likely to be very effective and is capable of leading the alliance
10:47to victory what this shows yashwan deshmukh is that people seem to have a good memory of palani
10:56sami's time as chief minister and unlike say paneer salwam or somebody else they seem to have the
11:03opinion at least 32 percent of them do that he is quite capable of leading this alliance to victory
11:10that's not a negative vote at all it seems to be a strong affirmation in fact exactly rahul and in fact
11:16in our tracker i mean our last tamilnadu poll and this poll the big difference as you mentioned in your
11:21opening remarks seems to be uh that clarity which is coming at least for the opposition uh rank and
11:28file uh without any alliance between aiadmk and the bjp and bjp mind you was going very very
11:35aggressive under uh animalized leadership and they had taken their portion to substantial jump in the
11:41last looks of my election i guess that uh what the data now is suggesting that there is a certain
11:49uh a very critical mass of anti-incumbent vote in tamilnad which was either silent or going haywire
11:57because of lack of a uh a cohesive alternative but with this announcement it seems that at least the
12:04anti-dmk vote is getting uh polarized in a in a much substantial way because when you look into the
12:13uh nda voters emotion and aia dmk voters uh uh sentiments you know they are literally going in
12:20sync there is no but is this a negative for the tvk the new party of vijay because in your last poll
12:26you was at 18 percent uh approval ratings for the next chief minister does this lead potentially to a
12:32consolidation of the anti-dmk vote that that remains to be seen because he is still in the popularity
12:38numbers his numbers are coming somewhere ranging between 15 to 20 percent is like going up and down
12:44but it remains to be seen whether he can hold on to those numbers or uh and if those numbers are
12:49coming from the aidmk side or dmk side and if at all rahul at some point of time he decides to join
12:56the bandwagon of the opposition if this gives momentum in some kind of form so that's an open area
13:04to to consolidate and look into but yes this alliance at least brings clarity to the opposition
13:10rank and file uh particularly from the old aia dmk support base as well as the new bjp support base
13:17and it seems that it is organically sinking at least in the cadre and the supporters okay
13:23in the absence of jail al-attah's leadership how capable do you believe the aidmk bjp alliance is of
13:30challenging the dmk led government in the assembly election 35.5 percent say very capable uh somewhat
13:38capable is 19 percent uh not capable at all is 35 and 10 say they're not sure so basically it's 35 36
13:50saying very capable and 35 saying not capable at all so mr tirupati it seems from the data that you
13:58together you are doing better than you were doing when you were fighting separately but it is not
14:03as if the india alliance has hit the ball out of the mh damram stadium no still there is one more
14:09here and you know the anti-incumbency or the failure of the dmk government is going to become more and
14:16more and more because they are the iterating law and order and also the misgovernance the loots by
14:23the dmk government the uh huge corruption by the dmk government all these things you know uh in fact
14:30it will be it is not only you know over this in the sami stadium uh you know it will cross uh many
14:37states that is going to happen so we we have we have only one thing uh in common uh rahul that the dmk
14:45government should be uh water out of power because people are really upset with the way the dmk is
14:51performing and uh definitely uh people are very upset and that is a very very important reason
14:58that is our main goal that we have to approve the dmk and the both the aidmk and the bjp we are very
15:05much uh you know uh happy that we have joined together we have got uh you know you were on the
15:11show when we had the last conversation that is prior to this aidmk bjp alliance
15:17one thing that mr tirupati says which may have some logic is that if this is how much the tide has
15:24turned at the mere announcement of the alliance as more time wears on the message could go deeper in
15:31tamilat society and the alliance could do better the converse to that is that more and more differences
15:37may also come to the fore between palani sami and the bjp which could make the alliance look more
15:43unwieldy so both things can happen uh rahul first of all we are 11 months ahead of an election so
15:50making any predictions at this stage will be a little foolhardy having said that um i'm you know
15:57having spoken to leaders from both sides um there are not going to be any major differences uh between
16:05the two parties until the 2026 election look off the record mr edapadi parni sami knows very well
16:11if the aidmk does not get a majority on its own he will have to form a coalition government he is
16:17reconciled to it obviously he can't say it out now because it makes him look extremely weak
16:22in a in a state where the coalition governments have been taboo so the dmk even now is not for one
16:28moment uh talking of any uh power sharing arrangement with its alliance partners so the aidmk cannot
16:36acknowledge openly even until the election results are out saying that they are willing
16:42for a coalition government but that is the de facto position on the ground so look if this alliance
16:49is actually going to work on the ground the aidmk is expected to contest around 150 to 160 seats not
16:55more than that at any rate and there are more parties for instance mr dinakaran's party is now
17:01part of the nda so they are going to be there pmk is going to be there dmdk is likely to be there so
17:06this is a huge alliance this is a mega alliance and if the aidmk contests 150 to 160 seats max there's
17:15no way they're going to get 117 so it's very likely i unless there is a complete wave which wipes out
17:22the dmk like what we saw in 2011 unless that happens which at this point of time i don't see happening
17:28uh what is likely to happen is tamilnadu is very likely to get a coalition government now how many
17:35parties would be part of the coalition uh how accountable but what do you make of palani sami
17:39saying that bjp has the alliance but it won't be part of government he has to say it now because saying
17:47that he is ready for a coalition government now makes him look awfully weak on the one side you have
17:53mr stalin saying that the dmk will never uh you know share power with people and here if you have
17:59an aidmk leader who's saying no no we are ready for coalition please come and join us though practically
18:06off the record and i can tell you this with some authority that the aidmk is reconciled to the fact
18:13that they may have to form a coalition government after the election right now everyone in this alliance
18:20at the moment appears to be focused on winning the election and i think that uh both mr amit shah
18:26and uh mr yadapadi were sort of forthright on we will discuss the issue of forming a government after
18:32the election you know the the question of an alliance or featuring in the government would be
18:36discussed after the election so i think that factually that's that is the position one very
18:42important part right now the momentum is sort of shifting towards this alliance so i i i can see where
18:49these numbers are possibly right but of course like we said 11 months is a long time okay and
18:57two experts have basically made the same point that if this is how much of an impact can be seen
19:03at the mere announcement of the alliance as time wears on and given that there is anti-incumbency which
19:09the dmk alliance faith the government faces at this time that this could become much worse
19:15as the months went on how concerned are you about the new alliance that's been announced
19:22see i am not concerned about the new alliance because we are very confident that we're going
19:26to have very good governance which is the reason why we won the 2019 elections 2021 elections 2022
19:31elections and 2022 elections the last 30 years it never happened the two point two consecutive
19:35of parliament election the ruling party aspect right this never happened and again people of
19:40tamiladu also know that voting for admk means voting for bjp we saw how amir shah treated mr edapati
19:46pandiswami and voting for bjp means that it is anti-tamiladu interest anti-state interest so you
19:53you may say whatever with the poll numbers but in any poll i really need to know what is your sample
19:58set back who are those sample set any sample set less than eight percent doesn't mean anything whoever
20:03studied basics of statistics would understand that is why i told most national channels even
20:08during the union uh government election exit poll i said i don't take the exit poll seriously because
20:13statistically they are absolutely irrelevant right tamiladu is now a beacon of hope for india
20:18for state rights for indian democracy indian secularism example for that is a verdict that my
20:23chief minister delivered for all the indian states against governor's exorcist which is also the
20:28present prime minister's wish because the present prime minister in 2013 said the union governments are
20:33ruling using the governors parallel governments are run who got who got his wish fulfilled my chief
20:37minister right again what did the you what did the prime minister moody said are we beggars when he was
20:42chief minister gujarat he said are we beggars to beg from the union government now okay all the states
20:47will have to beg from the union government bjp is not giving us any money whatsoever the fact is that there
20:53is like there is in punjab there is a anti-bjp sentiment that is sought to be created by the local
21:01dravidian parties and the aidmk was also during the looks of my elections and after that a part of that
21:06now that you are trying to tie up with the bjp which has been announced formally all these
21:12bent up angst about oh the bjp is a north indian hindi uh party which will impose on tamil culture that will
21:21now impact you that's the point the dmk is making that's why they think that this alliance won't be
21:26enough to trip the stallion government good evening rahul tamil nadu is predominantly a swing-door policy
21:37state like everybody knows it our leader amma broke that after 32 years in 2016. 2021 we had sought the
21:45mandate for the third consecutive time which has never happened since independence in tamil nadu
21:49barring our founder mgr from 77 to 87 with that on hand the third time when we sought the mandate
21:57with bjp as an ally the 2019 loksaba numbers percentage were 18 percent for aiadmk alone
22:06wherein we zoomed to 33 percent in 2021 with bjp as an ally bagging 75 mlas as the strongest opposition
22:14unlike the history of dmk where in 2011 in just five years of rule they lost the status quo as an
22:20opposition leader so tamil nadu the behaviors of voters with respect to loksaba parliamentary election
22:26is different assembly is different see the writing on the wall is very clear the dynasty rule which is
22:32happening in the name of democracy has to be shown the door this is not our mandate alone it is the
22:38talk of the town in amongst the people the tall promises made by dmk and the failures and the
22:44rampant corruption and the status quo of law and order which is in shambles and the misgovernance
22:52mismanagement all will take a big toll with in dmk's fortunes and mind you rahul i don't want to take
22:59credit on the survey now why because before even we could start firing our cannons if this is what the
23:06paradigm shift in the attitude of the uh people who had voted in this survey look at what will
23:13happen to dmk and its ally once we start firing our cannons which is going to start another two
23:17months time no what cannons do you have crambling for no no what what cannons do you have
23:26good we have not fired enough that's what the lesson is so they do they have do that does the
23:31aidmk alliance is amit shah and the bjp they're big gun or do they have cannons locally see obviously
23:39the entire campaign of the india is going to be based on the uh agenda i mean the talk of corruption
23:45against the dmk-led government in tamil haru for the last four plus years that's going to be the basic
23:51premise because the the dmk government is trying to make it an us versus them and pretty much borrowing
23:56from ntr slogan of deluga atma gauravam in 1982-83 the dmk-led government of amkistan is pretty
24:02much trying to do the same of making it us versus them so what you will hear from the dmk is the talk
24:07of tamil identity tamil some self-respect tamil uh language that's what is going to be the focus on and
24:13that is what the nda will have to counter because that's going to be the weak point as far as the bjp
24:19is concerned and the aidmk also would not want to come across as a party which is playing uh second
24:24fiddle to the bjp especially on these issues so they will have to keep the focus on corruption they
24:30will have to keep the focus on law and order and that's what the nda would really hope to do
24:34over the next 11 months in the run-up to the elections