AccuWeather severe weather expert Guy Pearson was live on the AccuWeather Network on April 16 to discuss the severe weather threat in the central United States.
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00:00All right, joining me right now is AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert Guy Pearson from the Severe Weather Center in Wichita, Kansas here.
00:07And you know, Guy, this big dip in the jet stream, some energy coming on out.
00:12I want to get your thoughts.
00:15Let's begin on Thursday because you and I were talking off camera here and we were talking about this timing of when the severe weather can start and end on Thursday.
00:26I want to show you and get your impressions here of the low-level jet, you know, the winds at around 5,000 feet.
00:36Yeah, certainly.
00:37Good morning, everybody.
00:38You know, we do have the main jet stream opening back up the Gulf, bringing moisture back north.
00:44And then certainly as we get into later in the day, Thursday and overnight, we do have the first piece of energy that kicks out as well as then the low-level jet.
00:53You know, those winds just above the surface that really helps to transport a lot of the moisture and energy farther north.
01:00It's going to be cranking up and getting in place certainly overnight Thursday.
01:05And you know, it's interesting because, you know, oftentimes we use this tool to show us when the worst of the storms would be.
01:12You look at that tool and you would think, well, you've got to worry about some strong thunderstorms lasting well past midnight.
01:19But, you know, as we've been watching, some of the future radar tools, like the one I'm showing you now, shows it a little differently.
01:30Yeah, it does show it a little differently.
01:32And, you know, some of the models do have some different biases at different times, right?
01:36So, depending upon how far you are out from a storm system, as well as, you know, holding on to pieces of energy before ejecting them out.
01:45But Thursday seems to be just sort of the beginning of it.
01:48There's enough instability.
01:49I know driving in this morning, there's a little bit of cumulus.
01:53There's a little bit of hype to a couple of the clouds around instead of just being more of a stratus layer.
01:57And so that's indicative of, hey, that transport of moisture and energy is starting to head north.
02:04So certainly as we get into today, tomorrow and then into tomorrow night, we're certainly looking at, you know, the possibility of some severe storms, mainly probably hailers.
02:15But certainly, you know, could see some gusty winds as well, probably over a smaller confined area.
02:21I'm going to put you on the spot here.
02:23Let's explain to people why we're not worried about tornadoes here and mostly about hail on Thursday.
02:32Yeah, I think with this, you know, it's one of those pieces of energy.
02:35The timing's not the best, you know, for tornadoes in this part of the world, you know, at this part of the season.
02:42And so, you know, the storms, they're going to have enough rotation for that hail because that is one thing that we need for large hail is that rotational updraft.
02:50But it's not something that's going to extend all the way to the surface for the most part.
02:54And so there's going to be enough energy, enough instability aloft to get things to really turn and create that larger hail.
03:01And then on occasion, we'll have some downbursts, you know, with the storms themselves and produce some damaging winds as well.
03:09Really quickly, Guy, you know, we've been pointing to there's the severe weather risk on Friday as well.
03:16But I want to get to Sunday. Sunday's the day that looks the most concerning.
03:23Yeah, certainly, you know, we had that large ridge or building of the jet across the plains.
03:29Well, that's because of pieces of energy and an upper level low over the southwest.
03:34And eventually that will kick out across the southern plains and into the Midwest on Sunday.
03:39As that does typically this time of year, you have all your moisture, you have all your warmth.
03:44And there will be some places that we'll see severe weather on Sunday as that main piece of energy does eject outwards.
03:52AccuWeather severe weather expert Guy Pearson.
03:54Thanks, Guy, for breaking it down.