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00:00Tonight, DRS, in Petco Park, the Padres, a minus 158 favorite against the Cubbies
00:06with a total of seven and a half to keep it perfect at home.
00:11Will the Padres remain unbeaten in San Diego?
00:15Might Chicago continue its great West Coast trip?
00:19Yeah, pretty good.
00:19Both these teams coming in pretty good form here, particularly at the plate.
00:22As you had a couple days ago, you had a 16 spot there for the Chicago Cubs.
00:25Then you just see that series against the Colorado Rockies, where I guess if they scored three total runs,
00:30they probably would have still swept the Rockies at that point because the Rockies didn't score at all.
00:34Jamison Tyone on the mound, 71 batters he's faced so far in this early season.
00:38A 258 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 359.
00:41If we take a look at some of those numbers through 16.1 innings pitched, he's got an ERA bet of 6.06,
00:47an expected ERA of 5.31, so not much difference there.
00:51But he does have a lower XFIP of 4.03, so maybe getting a little bit unlucky to the batters that he's facing.
00:57If we look at that Padres lineup today, there's not a lot to love.
00:59There are high weighted on base percentages here against right-handed pitchers so far this season
01:04for Tatis, Machado, Sheets, and Bogarts.
01:06The rest of the lineup, not so good.
01:08But let's flip it over to the other side and take a look at Dylan Cease.
01:11And you might be saying right now, like, hey, you know what?
01:13This is the time to get Dylan Cease, 66 batters on the season he's faced.
01:17He actually has a low ISO and a weighted on base percentage.
01:19That is decent at 3.39, but taking a look at his statistics through 14 and two-thirds innings pitched,
01:25have a close to an 8 ERA.
01:27But as expected, ERA, Ben, is actually 3.65, just about in half.
01:31And his XFIP is 3.33.
01:33So a lot of people that are new to handicapping are just taking a look at teams saying,
01:37boy, I just look at ERA and Cease isn't that good.
01:39Therefore, take the Cubs here.
01:41He's getting a little bit unlucky at this point because those K numbers are still high,
01:44which includes 32% of lefties and 27% overall.
01:48You look at the lineup coming into today for the Cubs, some opportunities.
01:51Kyle Tucker's been fantastic.
01:53Michael Bush as well.
01:54And also Miguel Amaya, the catcher, against right-handed pitching.
01:56But the rest of that lineup doesn't look great.
01:59So you might look and say, boy, these two pitchers might be able to get hit 7.5.
02:02No, that 7.5 actually makes sense.
02:04I look more towards the under in this game and give the benefit of the doubt to the Padres,
02:08being the home team.
02:09And also Cease, those numbers, a little bit smoke in mirrors right now.
02:13He probably should be less than that.