Week Ahead 01/01/24 - Colder temperatures and further rain and wind - video Dailymotion

Met Office

Mild, wet and windy southwesterly air to start the week. Rain across most of the UK on Tuesday. Strong winds especially in southern England and Wales, and the far northeast. Wednesday will see sunshine and showers across most of the UK. Thursday will be colder. The south will see some rain and temporary milder conditions. On Friday, some rain and strong winds from two nearby low pressure areas in the north and southeast. This weekend, colder conditions moving in from the northeast. Bringing you this week's weather forecast is Jonathan Vautrey.

Transcript

00:00 Hello there, very happy new year. 2023 is set to be one of the five warmest years on

00:06 record for the UK. But to start off 2024, many of us will actually see a slight downward

00:12 trend in our temperatures. More on that in a bit, because to start off the week, it's

00:17 actually mild air that we're going to see spreading its way in from the southwest. You

00:22 see those darker orange colours moving in across much of England, Wales, Northern Ireland,

00:26 but the far north of Scotland holding on to something cooler and fresher. That milder

00:30 weather, though, does come in association with areas of low pressure, and that means

00:35 wet and windy conditions. This area of occlusion front is going to push its way into parts

00:40 of Scotland, but we also have our eyes on this set of fronts starting to push their

00:43 way into the southwest. This is still set to some uncertainty. The models are slightly

00:49 differing in where they want to position the exact centre of this area of low pressure,

00:53 slightly further to the north, slightly further to the south. So the exact track of the rainfall

00:58 is still a bit uncertain. But at the moment, the time of the recording, it does look like

01:03 it will push across the vast majority of England and Wales as we head into Tuesday, moving

01:07 into parts of south eastern Northern Ireland into the far south of Scotland as well. So

01:12 there could be some localised disruption over the course of Tuesday. A result of that, obviously,

01:17 the end of December has been fairly wet. So add on this extra rainfall as well. There

01:21 could be some localised flooding in places. There will be strong winds around as well,

01:26 particularly for southern areas of England and Wales. Some coastal gales, maybe severe

01:30 gales around at times and for the far north east, some very strong winds for Shetland

01:34 and Orkney as well, with that second occluded front really bringing some persistent rainfall.

01:39 Tuesday, obviously, is a bank holiday in Scotland, so probably the best conditions if you are

01:44 wanting to get outside the parts of Angus into Fife, holding on to some of the slightly

01:49 drier conditions, depending on how quickly the showers want to push their way in from

01:54 the west temperatures over the course of the day, particularly mild in the south.

01:59 Now we've got those mild southwesterly winds moving their way in. So here holding up in

02:04 double digit figures, 12, 13 degrees Celsius for some of us further towards Scotland. Northern

02:09 Ireland will be around eight or nine degrees Celsius, but for everyone, it's probably going

02:13 to feel a touch colder than that's where you are underneath the most persistent rainfall

02:17 and exposed to the strongest winds as well. As we head off into Wednesday, this area of

02:24 low pressure is slowly going to drift its way off more towards the continent, but we

02:27 still have this one centred towards the northwest of the UK and that will be lingering around

02:31 still with that occluded front for parts of the northern hours. So again, some very persistent

02:36 rainfall for Orkney, Shetland still with those strong gales around at times as well. Elsewhere,

02:41 Wednesday is a mixture of sunshine and showers, those showers being pushed in by some very

02:45 brisk westerly winds. So the showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the west.

02:50 Further towards the east, you'll see something slightly drier. So maybe it's south east of

02:54 Scotland into parts of north east England, seeing some of the best chances there. Temperatures

02:59 again in the south, holding up in double digit figures, maybe just a couple of degrees lower,

03:04 sort of around 10, 11 degrees Celsius. Again, a degree or so down for Scotland, Northern

03:09 Ireland as well, seven, eight degrees Celsius here. As we head into Thursday, this is when

03:16 we start to see some of those cooler conditions really starting to arrive and you'll see the

03:20 bluer colours pushing their way in across much of northern areas of the UK. Still some

03:27 yellows in there, so we're not getting to some particularly cold temperatures just yet,

03:32 but temperatures just beginning their signs of things to slowly ease off. You'll also

03:36 notice that those ice bars are spacing their way out, so the winds will be coming a touch

03:42 lighter as well over the course of Thursday. But the other thing that we do need to take

03:46 a little bit of note of is this system that's going to start pushing into the south as well.

03:51 There is increasing model confidence we could see again another little area of low pressure

03:56 push into the far south of England as we head throughout the day. So some further rainfall

04:02 in here and also with this building in those milder conditions once again. So a fairly

04:07 wet Thursday to come for southern areas of England. This slice though through central

04:12 areas seeing something drier and brighter pushing into northern areas of England and

04:16 Northern Ireland getting away with a decent day here as well. Showers persisting around

04:20 that area of low pressure that still stuck towards the northwest of Scotland. The most

04:24 persistent rainfall for Orkney easing its way out, but still perhaps some lingering

04:29 on for Shetland, maybe even falling to sleet at lower levels where we hold on to those

04:33 slightly colder conditions. 7 degrees Celsius for Scotland, Northern Ireland, but you'll

04:38 see those milder conditions still persisting in the far south. 10, 11 degrees Celsius once

04:43 again. This area of low pressure will slowly continue to push its way slightly north eastwards

04:49 as we drift into Friday as well, and we end up with those two areas of low pressure sitting

04:54 to the northwest and the southeast as we head over the course of Friday itself. So

04:59 this is where we'll see the most persistent rainfall as well as the strongest winds around

05:03 at times. Meanwhile, you've got this slice from parts of north east Scotland down into

05:07 northern England, central England and then southwest Wales and southwest England where

05:11 we'll see something just that bit drier and brighter around at times as well. Again, winds

05:16 slowly beginning to ease their way off and there'll be fewer showers around compared

05:20 to recent days as well. So where you are away from those two areas of low pressure is something

05:26 a bit more pleasant around, particularly compared to what we will see at the start of this week.

05:31 And now you'll particularly notice that everywhere is in single figures. That milder air has drifted

05:37 its way off into the North Sea as that low pressure clears its way out. So southern areas

05:42 of England and Wales now down to around 8, 9 degrees Celsius, 6 degrees Celsius for parts

05:47 of Northern Ireland, Scotland pushing to around 5 in the far north east. Worth noting, though,

05:53 whilst this is colder certainly than what we are starting off the week with, this is

05:57 actually closer towards average for the time of year, what we normally expect for around

06:02 the start of January. So by all standards, it's not exceptionally cold, but it is certainly

06:08 quite a change compared to where we will start Monday and Tuesday. And there's potential

06:14 for further cold weather as we head into the weekend as well. This all dependent on how

06:19 that area of low pressure slowly continues to drift its way off into the North Sea and

06:23 the continent. Again, the models are handling that slightly differently. Depending on how

06:29 quickly we see that moving in is how quickly we'll see some northerly winds pushing around

06:34 the western flank of that low pressure centre. Meanwhile, we've got high pressure building

06:39 out in the Atlantic and that is wanting to drift its way in closer towards the UK for

06:43 the weekend as well. So if high pressure does move its way in, we could see something drier

06:48 across the board really. And in between that, that's where we see that north easterly feed

06:53 there really starting to push its way in. So that colder conditions moving in once again

06:58 from Scandinavia, we'll start to see again increased chance of those temperatures perhaps

07:03 dropping slightly below average for the time of year and an increased chance of those overnight

07:09 frosts turning a bit more widespread across more areas of the UK. An increased chance

07:14 as well, maybe some risk of ice during icy stretches where we still have some lingering

07:20 showers as well. So still plenty of things to keep an eye on over the course of this

07:24 first week of the new year. We'll have plenty of updates on all of that across YouTube,

07:29 so make sure you are subscribing to that as well as our social media channels. There'll

07:32 be plenty more throughout the rest of the year as well. And those 2020 free stats in

07:38 full will get published on Tuesday. We'll see you again here soon. Bye bye.

Week Ahead 01/01/24 - Colder temperatures and further rain and wind

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