00:00 Hello there, very happy new year. 2023 is set to be one of the five warmest years on
00:06 record for the UK. But to start off 2024, many of us will actually see a slight downward
00:12 trend in our temperatures. More on that in a bit, because to start off the week, it's
00:17 actually mild air that we're going to see spreading its way in from the southwest. You
00:22 see those darker orange colours moving in across much of England, Wales, Northern Ireland,
00:26 but the far north of Scotland holding on to something cooler and fresher. That milder
00:30 weather, though, does come in association with areas of low pressure, and that means
00:35 wet and windy conditions. This area of occlusion front is going to push its way into parts
00:40 of Scotland, but we also have our eyes on this set of fronts starting to push their
00:43 way into the southwest. This is still set to some uncertainty. The models are slightly
00:49 differing in where they want to position the exact centre of this area of low pressure,
00:53 slightly further to the north, slightly further to the south. So the exact track of the rainfall
00:58 is still a bit uncertain. But at the moment, the time of the recording, it does look like
01:03 it will push across the vast majority of England and Wales as we head into Tuesday, moving
01:07 into parts of south eastern Northern Ireland into the far south of Scotland as well. So
01:12 there could be some localised disruption over the course of Tuesday. A result of that, obviously,
01:17 the end of December has been fairly wet. So add on this extra rainfall as well. There
01:21 could be some localised flooding in places. There will be strong winds around as well,
01:26 particularly for southern areas of England and Wales. Some coastal gales, maybe severe
01:30 gales around at times and for the far north east, some very strong winds for Shetland
01:34 and Orkney as well, with that second occluded front really bringing some persistent rainfall.
01:39 Tuesday, obviously, is a bank holiday in Scotland, so probably the best conditions if you are
01:44 wanting to get outside the parts of Angus into Fife, holding on to some of the slightly
01:49 drier conditions, depending on how quickly the showers want to push their way in from
01:54 the west temperatures over the course of the day, particularly mild in the south.
01:59 Now we've got those mild southwesterly winds moving their way in. So here holding up in
02:04 double digit figures, 12, 13 degrees Celsius for some of us further towards Scotland. Northern
02:09 Ireland will be around eight or nine degrees Celsius, but for everyone, it's probably going
02:13 to feel a touch colder than that's where you are underneath the most persistent rainfall
02:17 and exposed to the strongest winds as well. As we head off into Wednesday, this area of
02:24 low pressure is slowly going to drift its way off more towards the continent, but we
02:27 still have this one centred towards the northwest of the UK and that will be lingering around
02:31 still with that occluded front for parts of the northern hours. So again, some very persistent
02:36 rainfall for Orkney, Shetland still with those strong gales around at times as well. Elsewhere,
02:41 Wednesday is a mixture of sunshine and showers, those showers being pushed in by some very
02:45 brisk westerly winds. So the showers will be heaviest and most frequent in the west.
02:50 Further towards the east, you'll see something slightly drier. So maybe it's south east of
02:54 Scotland into parts of north east England, seeing some of the best chances there. Temperatures
02:59 again in the south, holding up in double digit figures, maybe just a couple of degrees lower,
03:04 sort of around 10, 11 degrees Celsius. Again, a degree or so down for Scotland, Northern
03:09 Ireland as well, seven, eight degrees Celsius here. As we head into Thursday, this is when
03:16 we start to see some of those cooler conditions really starting to arrive and you'll see the
03:20 bluer colours pushing their way in across much of northern areas of the UK. Still some
03:27 yellows in there, so we're not getting to some particularly cold temperatures just yet,
03:32 but temperatures just beginning their signs of things to slowly ease off. You'll also
03:36 notice that those ice bars are spacing their way out, so the winds will be coming a touch
03:42 lighter as well over the course of Thursday. But the other thing that we do need to take
03:46 a little bit of note of is this system that's going to start pushing into the south as well.
03:51 There is increasing model confidence we could see again another little area of low pressure
03:56 push into the far south of England as we head throughout the day. So some further rainfall
04:02 in here and also with this building in those milder conditions once again. So a fairly
04:07 wet Thursday to come for southern areas of England. This slice though through central
04:12 areas seeing something drier and brighter pushing into northern areas of England and
04:16 Northern Ireland getting away with a decent day here as well. Showers persisting around
04:20 that area of low pressure that still stuck towards the northwest of Scotland. The most
04:24 persistent rainfall for Orkney easing its way out, but still perhaps some lingering
04:29 on for Shetland, maybe even falling to sleet at lower levels where we hold on to those
04:33 slightly colder conditions. 7 degrees Celsius for Scotland, Northern Ireland, but you'll
04:38 see those milder conditions still persisting in the far south. 10, 11 degrees Celsius once
04:43 again. This area of low pressure will slowly continue to push its way slightly north eastwards
04:49 as we drift into Friday as well, and we end up with those two areas of low pressure sitting
04:54 to the northwest and the southeast as we head over the course of Friday itself. So
04:59 this is where we'll see the most persistent rainfall as well as the strongest winds around
05:03 at times. Meanwhile, you've got this slice from parts of north east Scotland down into
05:07 northern England, central England and then southwest Wales and southwest England where
05:11 we'll see something just that bit drier and brighter around at times as well. Again, winds
05:16 slowly beginning to ease their way off and there'll be fewer showers around compared
05:20 to recent days as well. So where you are away from those two areas of low pressure is something
05:26 a bit more pleasant around, particularly compared to what we will see at the start of this week.
05:31 And now you'll particularly notice that everywhere is in single figures. That milder air has drifted
05:37 its way off into the North Sea as that low pressure clears its way out. So southern areas
05:42 of England and Wales now down to around 8, 9 degrees Celsius, 6 degrees Celsius for parts
05:47 of Northern Ireland, Scotland pushing to around 5 in the far north east. Worth noting, though,
05:53 whilst this is colder certainly than what we are starting off the week with, this is
05:57 actually closer towards average for the time of year, what we normally expect for around
06:02 the start of January. So by all standards, it's not exceptionally cold, but it is certainly
06:08 quite a change compared to where we will start Monday and Tuesday. And there's potential
06:14 for further cold weather as we head into the weekend as well. This all dependent on how
06:19 that area of low pressure slowly continues to drift its way off into the North Sea and
06:23 the continent. Again, the models are handling that slightly differently. Depending on how
06:29 quickly we see that moving in is how quickly we'll see some northerly winds pushing around
06:34 the western flank of that low pressure centre. Meanwhile, we've got high pressure building
06:39 out in the Atlantic and that is wanting to drift its way in closer towards the UK for
06:43 the weekend as well. So if high pressure does move its way in, we could see something drier
06:48 across the board really. And in between that, that's where we see that north easterly feed
06:53 there really starting to push its way in. So that colder conditions moving in once again
06:58 from Scandinavia, we'll start to see again increased chance of those temperatures perhaps
07:03 dropping slightly below average for the time of year and an increased chance of those overnight
07:09 frosts turning a bit more widespread across more areas of the UK. An increased chance
07:14 as well, maybe some risk of ice during icy stretches where we still have some lingering
07:20 showers as well. So still plenty of things to keep an eye on over the course of this
07:24 first week of the new year. We'll have plenty of updates on all of that across YouTube,
07:29 so make sure you are subscribing to that as well as our social media channels. There'll
07:32 be plenty more throughout the rest of the year as well. And those 2020 free stats in
07:38 full will get published on Tuesday. We'll see you again here soon. Bye bye.
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