2024 Elections: Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia leads the NPP as flagbearer | The Big Stories
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Just a few days ago, specifically Saturday,
00:04 the new patriotic party went
00:06 for its national delegates Congress.
00:09 It was an attempt to elect a flag bearer
00:11 for the party going into election 2024,
00:13 which they succeeded at doing.
00:15 Vice president Dr. Mahmoud Baroumiya
00:17 becoming the standard bearer, if you like,
00:21 for the political party going into that election.
00:23 In fact, interestingly, the current president
00:27 handing over the baton, so to speak,
00:29 to Dr. Baroumiya.
00:31 But what does this portend for the new patriotic party
00:34 in terms of its electoral fortunes going into next year?
00:38 Is this the team, at least with the flag bearer,
00:42 that can break the eight?
00:43 We've put that question out there on social media.
00:46 Joy News on Facebook this morning asking you,
00:49 can Dr. Mahmoud Baroumiya lead the MPP to break the eight?
00:54 Share your thoughts with us.
00:55 But for now, in the studio,
00:57 we're going to have a conversation on that,
00:59 the wider issues and the narrow issues.
01:01 Joining us as guests, Professor Kobi Mensah.
01:04 He's a political marketing consultant
01:06 with the University of Ghana Business School.
01:08 We also have Dr. Michael Ayamga,
01:11 a development economist and senior lecturer
01:13 at the University for Development Studies in Tamale.
01:16 Gentlemen, good morning.
01:17 - Morning, and thanks for having me.
01:21 - All right.
01:22 Dr. Ayamga, I would ask that you just hold on for me.
01:28 Professor Kobi Mensah is a bit tied up this morning,
01:30 pressed for time, so I'm going to expend a bit of time
01:33 on him and then let him go.
01:34 Then I'll come to you, Dr. Ayamga.
01:36 I hope that's okay with you, sir.
01:38 - That's good.
01:40 - Thank you, thank you so much.
01:41 Prof, initial thoughts on everything
01:45 that happened on Saturday.
01:46 So I'm starting from a very wide area
01:48 before we narrow it down to the crucial issues.
01:51 What was your impression of the Congress of the MPP?
01:53 - Thank you, and thanks to Dr. Ayamga
01:57 for giving me the platform.
01:59 I have a class at eight, so I had to run.
02:01 Okay, no, so generally, of course,
02:04 the party has done well.
02:07 The organization, I think, very much went better
02:11 than the superdelegate elections way back in August.
02:15 So you would say that the party structures
02:16 had perhaps learned one or two from the lot of complaints
02:20 that actually came after that particular elections.
02:24 So of course, in terms of the organization,
02:27 you would actually give them a pass for that.
02:29 But the things surrounding what you call
02:32 the entire organization,
02:36 obviously, there had been quite a lot of criticisms
02:39 about the strategy in terms of deciding to do it
02:43 center by center, as opposed to pulling them together
02:46 in a convention, which most people
02:49 have actually expressed opinions on that,
02:51 including the candidate themselves,
02:53 because then it allows room for certain intimidation.
02:58 I mean, there are some constituencies
03:00 that you saw almost nothing, or not almost nothing,
03:04 but nothing for the other contestants.
03:06 But Dr. Baume, for example, sweeping the entire slate
03:10 in those constituencies, that actually speaks to you
03:14 that people are under certain coercion
03:17 to express their political views in a certain manner,
03:20 especially when you group them in that constituency
03:23 by constituency basis.
03:25 So perhaps they have to look at that.
03:26 That's a bit of a criticism that most people--
03:29 - But pressure or not, it was a secret vote,
03:32 and the people could have expressed their opinion,
03:33 as we saw them do in some interesting cases
03:36 in the Ashanti region and in the central region.
03:38 So what then, was that--
03:41 - You would think that's the case.
03:43 Ideally, you would think that's the case.
03:44 But of course, internal party structures
03:46 are completely different.
03:47 I mean, these people are easily targeted,
03:51 unlike national elections where you could say
03:53 that there are some floating voters here and there,
03:55 so you wouldn't be able to even get,
03:58 because it's a secret ballot.
03:59 But you know, when it comes to party elections,
04:02 almost everybody knows everybody,
04:03 just like a small community, a village community.
04:06 And so people know who is Alan Barkes,
04:09 who people know who is Kennedy Japone Barkes,
04:12 who know who is Baume Barkes.
04:15 And so with that particular foreknowledge,
04:18 you would know that perhaps if you vote
04:20 according to, or not according to
04:23 what the pressures want you to do,
04:25 then you are easily targeted and identified.
04:27 And that's why we say that doing it center by center
04:30 is not an ideal position, is not a suitable position
04:34 to remove the political pressures on people.
04:36 But having said that, the vote itself is quite interesting.
04:39 If you look at Baume and City 1% against the TauTest 75,
04:44 it was highly publicized that he was gonna get 75 and above.
04:48 Some people had even stated that
04:52 if he gets anything beyond 75, that's not a good poll.
04:55 All right, but of course, the evidence is that he got 61.
04:59 And then Kennedy Japone, who people didn't really think
05:02 from where he was coming, could pull that much.
05:05 He got 37.
05:06 - And some had said, the projections were that
05:09 he would even struggle to get between 20 and 25%.
05:12 He got over 37%, almost 40%.
05:16 - Absolutely, and then let's break up the vote itself.
05:20 I mean, in marketing, we have something called market share.
05:23 If you go to the market and you look at the total pool
05:25 of the market size, we look at the share that you have.
05:29 But in this case, in the Baume's case, for example,
05:32 we can actually align it to what we call co-branding.
05:35 If you have a very huge machinery behind you,
05:39 like the office of the president, which everybody knows,
05:42 you have so many parliamentarians
05:47 leading the Baume's campaign.
05:49 You have almost all the state officers
05:53 or the most important personalities in the party
05:56 leading Baume's campaign.
05:58 That's a huge coalition that you have.
06:01 So such a size of a coalition can produce 61%.
06:05 Then you would have to ask yourself,
06:07 which part of that 61 is actually the contribution
06:11 of Baume's own strength?
06:12 So for me, I look at it as a very reduced legitimacy,
06:16 and rather legitimacy swings to Kennedy Japan side.
06:20 Of course, you could also argue that his backers
06:23 could be a coalition of his own strength,
06:25 plus Alan's backers, because they had actually come out,
06:28 but of course they have to vote.
06:30 So they might have actually pledged their support
06:32 logically to Kennedy Japan, for example.
06:36 So I find it very interesting knowing the true strength
06:40 of Dr. Baume, given that he has a very huge, large coalition,
06:45 very powerful coalition behind him,
06:47 and he could only pull 61%.
06:49 It's quite interesting there.
06:50 So you realize that the legitimacy itself
06:53 is actually behind Kennedy Japan.
06:54 He has a huge stakes now.
06:56 If you're talking about the big weights in MPP,
07:01 you cannot discount Kennedy Japan, for example.
07:04 - Now, looking at the voting pattern across the regions,
07:08 we saw some shocking events in the Ashanti region
07:11 where people swung wildly for Kennedy Japan.
07:16 In fact, the majority leader himself conceded
07:18 that some of the votes took him by surprise
07:20 in the Ashanti region, because it was supposed
07:22 to be a done deal for Dr. Mahmoud Baume.
07:25 Same happened in the central region,
07:27 where in some instances, the gap, the spread,
07:30 was almost 700 for Kennedy Japan.
07:34 But on the back of the polls, the votes he secured,
07:38 what does this really mean in terms of the unity of the MPP?
07:43 After this, they said, and we are united,
07:46 and we are forging ahead.
07:47 In fact, Kennedy Japan said, let me just find,
07:51 election was free and transparent.
07:53 That was what Kennedy Japan said.
07:54 The prelude to that, in the prelude to the election,
07:58 we had had Boise Jaco, the likes of Dr. Friere-Couture,
08:01 the likes of Francis Adayemu, Kennedy Japan himself,
08:05 Alan Tremateng, saying this process has been rigged,
08:09 it's manipulated, it is influencing people in a certain way,
08:14 and it's not going to be fair.
08:18 On the back of all these dynamics,
08:20 Alan has formed his movement.
08:22 Ken has run this two-horse race, if you like,
08:26 and come out proving a point.
08:28 Where does that leave the MPP in terms of unity
08:32 and possibly breaking the eight?
08:35 - Well, of course, you can actually explain
08:38 or analyze the unity in terms of two folds.
08:41 One, of course, usually post-election unity
08:44 is as a result of the behavior of the candidates themselves.
08:48 So if the candidate had actually,
08:50 or had demonstrated anything contrary to their acceptance,
08:56 then of course you could actually see the fragility
08:59 in the rank and file of the MPP.
09:02 Well, fortunately for them, the main protagonist
09:05 seemed to have accepted the leadership
09:09 or the winning of Dr. Baume, for example.
09:12 So you would not really see it from the top,
09:14 and you would not see an ostensible kind of disunity
09:18 amongst the party folks,
09:19 because the key protagonists have actually accepted,
09:24 and so you wouldn't see that.
09:25 But the other side of it is about the harboring
09:28 of disunity or unhappiness or the apathy
09:32 from the part of the followers themselves,
09:35 whether if their leadership had actually accepted it,
09:38 whether they personally would accept it,
09:40 that's a different kind of conversation.
09:42 And that is what usually lead to party apathy,
09:46 that the supporters do not come out to vote.
09:48 Now, I asked myself, if people had been so coerced,
09:52 influenced with money, which ostensibly was on the TV
09:57 screens, in radio, a lot of people seem to have been
10:01 hugely influenced by what they call TNT.
10:04 Now, in the general election, I don't think there's gonna
10:07 be any TNT for anybody.
10:09 So if the parties themselves have actually sort of undermined
10:14 their own authority by giving people TNT to motivate them
10:18 to come to the vote, to what extent would they stay out
10:22 or be apathetic to the process during the 2024,
10:26 you know, December election?
10:27 So that is very, very crucial, because you have motivated
10:31 people to come to vote for you.
10:32 Would they have come if you hadn't actually given them
10:34 money?
10:35 Perhaps yes, because the majority of them expressed
10:37 disappointment, not even having money in the first place
10:40 or some of the money in the first place.
10:42 That tells you that, yes, we can talk about unity
10:46 in the universal sense, i.e. the leaders have accepted,
10:49 everybody seems to be hunky-dory going on.
10:52 But in the heart of heart of the supporters of the people,
10:56 if they hadn't been motivated by money, perhaps they
10:58 wouldn't have come.
10:59 So what will be the attitude towards the MPP's own
11:03 voting counts of voter share come December 2024?
11:07 That's very crucial for them.
11:09 - Now, let's look at the fragility, how weak Dr. Baumea is,
11:14 because some have painted the picture that, look,
11:16 Kennedy Japone came out of nowhere, was a dark horse,
11:20 and he secured almost 40%.
11:23 Of course, you put that side by side with John Romani
11:27 Mahama in his internal election, securing about 98.9%
11:32 of the vote.
11:34 And some are projecting that Dr. Baumea is a weak candidate
11:39 because of the baggage he comes with, because of this
11:43 performance, which was not foreseen by the party,
11:46 because all, like you mentioned, all of those we interacted
11:49 with from the party, whether from his camp or otherwise,
11:51 said he wouldn't secure anything, anything less than 70%.
11:56 61% was what he secured.
11:59 Now, could it be that from where you sit, you're thinking
12:03 the party has fought the battle, or Dr. Baumea has won
12:07 the battle, but in terms of winning the war,
12:09 it could be far more problematic?
12:12 - Absolutely, I mean, I see it as a very weak legitimacy,
12:17 because obviously we have that level of expectation for him.
12:23 And as I said earlier, look at the giant leading
12:26 the campaign, you know, usually when we're doing
12:30 political campaigning, we have a certain candidate,
12:34 or a certain personality, although they may not be
12:36 the candidate themselves, but they whip votes
12:39 to your direction.
12:40 I mean, my own PhD actually sits on MPP strategy
12:44 in 2000 elections, and so we looked at what we call
12:49 the homeboyism kind of idea, to see the pillars
12:53 that actually went on to kind of mobilize support
12:57 for the candidate, that also is a factor in your winning.
13:01 So if you look at the kinds of endorsers who actually
13:05 followed Baumea's campaign, and make sure that they could
13:09 articulate his appeal to the voters, or to the delegates,
13:13 and then you see other people who hadn't actually
13:17 had that kind of endorsement, and still he came out
13:20 with 61%, I think it's quite interesting to note
13:24 that it's a very reduced legitimacy, and that's why
13:27 we're talking about the idea that he hasn't had
13:30 an absolute grip over the party.
13:32 Now, whether that would actually spell disunity,
13:35 I don't think so, because as I already have said,
13:38 the leadership had actually accepted his leading
13:42 of the party, but as to whether that would reflect
13:45 in the vote, it's questionable.
13:47 I mean, in terms of the broader, you know,
13:50 legitimacy that he could actually secure,
13:53 when his own team have touted 75 plus, or at least 75,
13:58 and that disappointment had been expressed
14:03 by the majority leader, and not only him,
14:07 I know quite a lot of people, prominent MPP people,
14:10 being parliamentarians or party folks,
14:12 who had led this campaign, had believed
14:15 that in their constituency, they're gonna whitewash
14:17 the competition, but it never happened,
14:19 and I'm sure that inside the campaign,
14:21 they're very disappointed, and they're looking at
14:23 its possible implication on his leadership,
14:25 and then in December election next year.
14:27 - Just to leave you with these, because I know you have
14:30 to go in the next two to three minutes,
14:33 you talk about a reduced legitimacy for Dr. Mahamudu Baumea,
14:36 but to be fair to him as well, you would also notice
14:39 that you can even say he's the strongest of the weakest,
14:42 in the sense that for first-time contenders,
14:46 those who are engaging in the presidential primary
14:49 for the first time, this is the highest any of those
14:52 have got in the MPP, so you can give him that.
14:55 But the two questions I'll throw at you,
14:57 what if there were an Alan, not Alan,
15:01 Baumea-Kenedi-Ejapong pairing for election 2024?
15:06 Would that put the MPP in a better stead to break the eight?
15:10 And then again, Justin Frimpong-Koduya,
15:14 the General Secretary of the party has said,
15:16 "The MPP can never be tagged as an Akan party
15:19 on the back of the election of Baumea."
15:22 Does this make that assertion correct
15:27 with the selection of Dr. Baumea?
15:30 - Well, let me give you an insight in my own PhD.
15:33 As I said, my PhD is very much sits on MPP strategy
15:36 in 2000 elections, very much the same framework.
15:40 When you're going into elections,
15:41 you have at least three elements.
15:43 You have your presidential candidate,
15:45 you have your policy, you have your party,
15:48 representing the brand, the political brand
15:51 of the political party going forward.
15:53 So you're not only looking at the strength of the candidate
15:56 and perhaps the possible vice candidate,
15:59 but you're also looking at the strength
16:02 of your policy brand, which is your policy credibility,
16:07 the policy types and what the target markets are
16:10 for those policy.
16:11 You're also looking at the brand of the political party,
16:13 whether the political party has established track record
16:16 that on the foreground of the people's thinking
16:19 could actually influence.
16:20 The influencing factor is only the candidate strength,
16:23 but these three basic strengths.
16:25 Now, if you take the MPP currently as we speak,
16:29 nobody would tell you that they have policy brand strength.
16:33 That policy brand strength has been reduced
16:35 because of the wrong promises that they gave
16:38 in 2016, 2020 elections that they didn't deliver.
16:43 So policy credibility perspective, you're weak there.
16:46 I'm surprised to actually,
16:48 I would be surprised to find that Ghanaians
16:51 will really believe in total,
16:54 like the policy promises that the NDC would offer,
16:57 that's a MPP would offer, that's a challenge.
16:59 Now you have also the party's, what do you call, profile.
17:04 Now the party's profile usually is actually taken
17:06 from where the party originally came from,
17:09 its traditions, its history, its ideology,
17:13 and whether those can actually present
17:16 quite a brand strength to pull the vote.
17:19 And then of course you can talk about
17:20 a candidate's character in terms of its believability,
17:23 in terms of its approachability,
17:25 in terms of its ideological basis,
17:27 all these ones come to mind.
17:29 I mean, I think, you know, going forward to this campaign,
17:32 of course we're not discussing NDC,
17:34 but we can make comparison and then compare that
17:37 with also Allen, for example,
17:39 who is actually going independent.
17:41 Now, I think that the MPP has the issue
17:43 with the policy credibility brand issue.
17:46 They have a candidate problem they have to fix
17:48 because their candidate is not the one
17:50 that voters believe in.
17:51 I'm sure a lot of Ghanaians will tell you,
17:53 and what they have actually branded in mass.
17:55 And then of course you have the party track record.
17:57 Perhaps the party track record could help,
17:59 but there are current, you know, what do you call,
18:03 factors that would remind voters
18:06 whether the party has a credibility or not.
18:07 So I think that they are going into this election
18:10 in a very weak position.
18:11 - All right.
18:13 And the Akan party tag, does this wipe it away?
18:16 - I think that Justin Kodio was wrong.
18:20 Of course, he could have actually misspoke
18:22 because he used Akan to represent Ashanti
18:25 as opposed to the totality of the Akan people.
18:27 But I had always argued that's not the main case.
18:30 I mean, if you look at our political history,
18:33 we do not have divisions in terms of geographical divisions
18:36 or culturally, et cetera.
18:38 NDC had gone on to present South-South tickets
18:42 on a number of occasions and they've won.
18:44 It is because of the perception,
18:46 the perception of Akaniste on MPP
18:48 is because of their own behavior.
18:51 I have almost said every time that why would be,
18:55 why would the finance minister keep on naming
18:57 its budgetary brand name with Akan name?
19:01 What do you call, they call something Obatan Pakhe
19:06 and another time they put another Akan name on it.
19:08 These are the behaviors that people are interpreting
19:11 and say you are too Akanistic.
19:12 It's not because you presented or not
19:15 a certain party leader.
19:17 Again, I have said that most of the time
19:19 when you meet MPP people in a gathering,
19:21 they're most likely to speak Trib than English.
19:24 Whereas when you go to NDC, it is not.
19:27 These are to look at and then of course the appointment.
19:31 If you check the appointment of the Nnado,
19:33 you would hear a lot of Akan sounding names
19:36 than the other tribes.
19:37 These are not my words.
19:38 If you go and check my transcript
19:40 with some of the party top weights in way down in 2008
19:45 when I did my data, these are some of the things
19:47 that they themselves refer to.
19:49 The reasons why Jacob Habilamte would want to bring in
19:53 quite a lot of people of other sounding names
19:56 at the forefront of every press interaction
20:00 and actually feel the MPPs, you know,
20:02 press interaction with lots of women
20:04 were because to reduce the certain perception.
20:08 And when they won in 2000,
20:10 they went back on their own framework
20:12 and started doing things differently.
20:14 That is what is actually affecting people's perception
20:16 of the MPP as a kinesthetic.
20:18 Not because they hadn't had a leadership
20:21 of a certain extraction as you would call it.
20:25 - Prof, we're so grateful for your time.
20:26 We've stolen a few more minutes than we planned.
20:29 But thank you so much. - Sorry about that.
20:30 Yeah, we'll talk again.
20:32 - All right. - Thank you.
20:33 - And that is Professor Kobi Menter
20:34 of the University of Ghana Business School.
20:36 Let's now move on to Dr. Michael Ayamga.
20:38 Doc, once more, thank you so much
20:40 for being patient with us.
20:43 From where you sit,
20:44 how would you assess the happenings of Saturday
20:47 as far as this presidential primary of the MVP is concerned?
20:51 If you look at the numbers in there,
20:53 the greatest numbers of delegates
20:54 coming through from the Great Accra region
20:56 with over 39,000 voters,
20:59 then at the Ashanti region with 35,000,
21:01 it continues like that, East and Central, Western.
21:04 But were there any surprises in there for you
21:07 in terms of the voting patterns?
21:08 - Yeah, thank you, Ben.
21:11 Good morning.
21:11 I think Professor Kobi did a lot of justice
21:15 to some of the issues that you put forward there.
21:18 And most important is the legitimacy
21:23 behind Dr. Mahmoud Boumia going forward.
21:27 He is now facing some headwinds
21:32 in terms of projecting himself.
21:34 I think that the vice president as it stands now
21:39 lacks the legitimacy to lead.
21:41 If 40% of your own party
21:44 think that you do not deserve
21:46 to be president of this country,
21:48 you do not deserve to be a presidential candidate,
21:51 taking that message to the wider electorate
21:54 is only going to spell disaster.
21:56 I'm in Northern Ghana here,
21:57 and I can tell you that the news of his election
22:00 is already stale.
22:02 There is no excitement behind the election.
22:06 And when you are speaking to people in the MVP,
22:08 there is this inward inner dissatisfaction
22:13 and apprehension with your choice.
22:15 Definitely, as Professor Kobi said,
22:20 you more or less saw state choreographed elections.
22:25 There was a--
22:27 - What did you just call it?
22:28 State choreographed elections.
22:30 State choreographed elections.
22:32 Is that what you said?
22:33 - Yeah, yeah, that's what I said.
22:34 - Why do you say that?
22:35 - Because choreographed.
22:36 Everything was done to make sure that
22:39 Vice President Dr. Mahmoud Oba would be a image.
22:42 There was certain fear that he wasn't going to be an image.
22:47 And on weekend, I was on TV,
22:49 look at TV here in Tamale
22:51 with the counselor of Saudi Arabia.
22:55 I think my senior in secondary school, Kamal Deen.
23:00 And he said that they had felt some fear in themselves,
23:04 and he had to go down to his community in Nantong
23:07 to ensure that things went the way they were expecting
23:10 because he was supporting Dr. Mahmoud Oba Umiya.
23:14 So you can understand the apprehension, the fears.
23:16 Some people have to do something to ensure that
23:19 what the people wanted to project doesn't come to pass.
23:22 So that is the problem we are confronted with here.
23:26 40% is no small number.
23:30 It now means that the machinery, state machinery,
23:35 the election machinery that was immersed
23:37 in the Oba Umiya campaign has to sell him,
23:41 resell him, rebrand, repackage him to Ghanaians.
23:45 And given the baggage on Dr. Mahmoud Oba Umiya,
23:50 it's not going to excite anybody.
23:54 I always say that,
23:55 I'll outline the slip keys.
23:59 I have my own three keys about the ability
24:02 to bring back the electorate to the party.
24:07 And first, you have to do with the personality
24:09 or the people.
24:10 And the vice president comes across as someone
24:14 who has lost credibility in terms of his ability
24:18 to transform his speech into action.
24:22 And you also have to look at the powers.
24:25 The MPP has naturally been a doorpoly
24:28 between Buzia and Dankwa factions of the party,
24:32 even though it's not explicitly stated.
24:35 It is a written convention that more or less
24:39 supersedes their constitution.
24:41 That is why after 2007,
24:45 when Alan Jumantin was very strong, very popular,
24:49 many people bought his message.
24:51 The internal structures of the MPP ensure
24:55 that the candidate Akufo-Addo emerged then.
25:00 Even in the buildup to these elections,
25:02 you have slogans like "Adru Musu" and all other things.
25:05 That "Adru Musu" was driven by the internal convention
25:10 of the MPP that is a doorpoly
25:12 between the Buzia and Dankwa tradition.
25:14 As for the Dumbo that they are now trying to abstract
25:17 Dr. Mahmoud Oba Umiya, which is not actually the case.
25:20 It's just a side dish or a dessert
25:22 after the meal has been eaten.
25:24 So you realize that the claim of Justin Kodya,
25:29 United Secretarial Act, that the MPP is not an asymptotic
25:35 is probably a misunderstanding of the protest
25:39 of the Dankwa faction, the Buzia faction.
25:42 They have gone massively for Alan Jumantin
25:46 in dissatisfaction to the attempt to distort
25:51 the internal harmony, the unwritten code
25:54 that has been governing the MPP internal elections
25:57 for several years now.
26:00 And they're now getting up and trying to say
26:02 that they have to get, let's say, Dr. Mahmoud Oba Umiya.
26:06 Many people know, Ben, I have to say,
26:08 many people know that Dr. Mahmoud Oba Umiya
26:11 is Akufo-Addo's third term.
26:14 And that the powers that he draws
26:18 are firmly rooted in the circles and in the structures
26:22 that brought President Akufo-Addo to power,
26:24 and that has anchored him in government so far.
26:27 So he's more or less another Dankwa faction of the party
26:31 going in the name of the Tumbo faction of the MPP,
26:36 which is the weakest and probably the most lame structure
26:41 in the party.
26:42 So if you look at these things going forward,
26:45 you have to get worried.
26:46 And secondly, thirdly, the third P is the performance.
26:49 People don't want us to talk about it.
26:52 They say it is a debate for another day,
26:54 but it's the debate is now.
26:56 The performance of the MPP,
26:59 whose economic management team has been led
27:02 by Dr. Mahmoud Oba Umiya is disappointing.
27:05 He is on record to have said that you cannot,
27:10 currencies depreciate when the fundamentals are weak,
27:14 and that you cannot borrow in this manner.
27:18 That manner he was referring to was 122 billion
27:23 when he inherited from President John Ramallah-Mahmoud.
27:28 - Right.
27:29 - As we speak, he took it all the way to 575 billion.
27:34 That is almost $50 billion.
27:36 If you look at it, how much has he added?
27:39 80% to the debt stock.
27:41 That record is not something you can sell.
27:44 He talked about inflation.
27:45 He took an inflation of about 13.3%.
27:50 And when we're talking last year,
27:51 it was about 54% somewhere.
27:53 We are talking about 38.7% as we sit now.
27:58 That is several multiples of what he inherited.
28:01 He also in that same interview,
28:04 talked about that you cannot print money
28:06 and expect the economy to be okay.
28:10 In 2016, there was zero financing of government budget check
28:15 as part of the IMF program that the NDC has tried to.
28:18 There was zero financing of the central government.
28:23 As we speak, as of last year,
28:25 this government borrowed from the central bank
28:27 to a tune of 45 billion guineas.
28:30 That is the record.
28:32 You want to talk of employment?
28:33 When he left office, President John Rahman-Mahmoud
28:36 gave him an unemployment of 13.3%.
28:41 Last year, the Ghana Statistical Survey said
28:44 1.7 million people were unemployed.
28:48 That is a very huge number.
28:50 I should say he got 5.1% unemployment from John Rahman-Mahmoud.
28:55 Last year, it was 13.
28:57 So if you look at everything that you ought to take
29:03 to elections, what made Dr. Mahmoud Babumi
29:05 an exciting candidate then, now he's very abysmal.
29:10 He can't sell that record.
29:13 You look at everything from the institutions, they are weak.
29:17 And people like to avoid it, but I say it out of this.
29:20 You see, he brings on board certain consequences
29:25 in Northern Ghana.
29:26 I agree that he may keep the Northeast
29:32 where he comes from in play for the MPP
29:35 because that was going to slip away
29:37 if he had not emerged a candidate.
29:40 I think President Akuf Addo carried the region
29:42 by some 10,000 votes, which I think,
29:45 given that the Vice President was coming from that region,
29:49 it was already an indictment on him.
29:51 But he will keep that in play.
29:53 But he also takes away the significant votes
29:58 from the stronghold of the MPP, which is the Ashanti region.
30:02 And the numbers coming in, if you are mean,
30:05 you will get worried.
30:06 We have always talked about the leading factor
30:12 from the point of inclusion,
30:14 that it has almost become a cliche
30:16 that you get a Southern candidate,
30:17 you get a Northern, North, Northern.
30:19 So the leading place, a central role in our election.
30:22 It has been the vice presidency.
30:25 Now it is going to go into the presidency.
30:28 That debate is being transported to the presidency.
30:32 And you have to ask yourself,
30:34 how is the largely Christian South going to accept him?
30:39 It has always been Putin, the number two as a Muslim,
30:41 so that the largely Muslim North will accept.
30:45 How is it going to play?
30:47 We already know that that is going to be
30:48 a very serious sell to many.
30:51 - Right.
30:52 - And that is why you see Dr. Muhammad Bawumia
30:55 trying to be a Christian, which is a meaningless word.
30:58 - Let's look at this interesting bit.
31:02 I'll get into the Ashanti and Eastern regions,
31:04 pillars for the MPP in any election
31:08 and the voting patterns there.
31:09 But on that same point,
31:11 in terms of the baggage that Dr. Bawumia comes with,
31:15 you look at again, the projections.
31:17 So Nana Komiya, for example, predicted,
31:21 he said Dr. Bawumia would go beyond 75% on November the 4th.
31:26 Then there was also the projection by Samir Ruku
31:30 who managed his campaign.
31:31 Any poll that gives Bawumia less than 75% is not serious.
31:36 There was Ben Epson saying MPP presidential primaries,
31:39 Bawumia would win with around 75% of votes.
31:42 There was also this one, MPP primaries,
31:46 Bawumia tipped to win 80% of votes.
31:48 Of course, we had the UK institution also bring that in.
31:52 Then we had the majority leader say that Dr. Bawumia
31:57 would win with over 75% of votes.
32:02 If you look at the voting pattern
32:05 and everything that has happened in between,
32:07 you spoke about reselling and rebranding the vice president.
32:12 Is it possible to rebrand and resell him
32:15 on the back of all this and with the latest showing?
32:17 - Yeah, exactly, that's my point.
32:21 And I said, as to whether you can normally bring back
32:24 a disenchanted electorate within your party,
32:27 depends on these three things I outlined.
32:29 And the person of Bawumia makes that very difficult.
32:33 If you look at Bawumia 2016, he had no track record.
32:36 He had to take prophecies to predict what he was going to do.
32:39 So the excitement around him was the bias words
32:41 he was using, those economic jargons
32:43 that we spoke of when we were in graduate school,
32:46 those were the ones he was churning out in lectures
32:48 and getting all the media houses following him.
32:53 He has not been able to translate
32:55 every single one of them to a policy.
32:58 So he is not going to be able to reproject
33:02 and rebrand himself.
33:04 Anybody trying to rebrand Dr. Mahmoud Bawumia
33:08 is just like what we saw.
33:09 The establishment coming up with polls,
33:12 the big weeks within the state machinery,
33:16 coming out with election numbers
33:19 that were going to favor Dr. Bawumia,
33:21 trying to further silence the rest,
33:23 the voice of the disenchanted people.
33:26 And at the end of the day, what happened?
33:28 They still managed to come through to tell us
33:30 that the candidate you are trying to package for us,
33:33 first of all, is a disappointment to me,
33:36 ourselves internally, and he will not be able
33:39 to bring in many guardians.
33:41 I would like to stress categorically
33:45 that all the polls we are seeing
33:47 is what the other candidates were talking about,
33:49 state-managed elections, establishment candidate
33:54 being projected at the expense of democracy,
33:57 at the expense of fair elections.
34:01 Fair voting is not the same as fair elections.
34:04 We need to create that distinction.
34:06 And if you look at all these MPs,
34:09 the ministers and the rest who were openly campaigning
34:13 for Dr. Mahmoud Bawumia and really everything
34:15 to silence the rest, that makes the elections suspect
34:19 and seriously problematic.
34:22 And as we sit now, you are in Northern Ghana,
34:27 you don't hear anything.
34:29 You expect that a northerner has been selected
34:32 as a presidential candidate of a major party in the country.
34:37 The leading system, people are worried
34:40 and people are jittery.
34:42 As we sit now, and the question you posed to a prov,
34:48 an Alan Kennedy ticket would have made the election
34:53 a very tough one, unless something seismic happens,
34:57 something apocalyptic happens and we don't vote.
35:01 It is fair to say we'll swear in President Obama
35:04 and Muhammad Ghani January 2025, given what we are seeing.
35:08 - Wow, that's quite a projection.
35:10 You're saying that on the back of everything
35:12 that has happened, even without the MPP,
35:14 even without Dr. Bawumia choosing his running mate,
35:17 you are saying that as of now, it is fair to say
35:20 that come the 7th of January 2025,
35:24 we'll be swearing in John Romani Mahama?
35:27 - You can hold me to my word.
35:28 You can ask me the question on this studio
35:31 and I will tell you that they have no record
35:34 to run against.
35:34 I was on TV again, the issue was trying to run away
35:38 from the record that Dr. Bahamu, Bawumia
35:41 was not in charge, he's President Lakuf Adun has in charge.
35:44 And that is problematic.
35:46 If you look at one thing that people don't talk about
35:50 is the legitimacy to govern.
35:54 Within the party, Dr. Muhammad Bawumia is not empowered
35:58 by a very solid structure that he has built
36:00 that he's controlled.
36:02 He's empowered by a structure controlled
36:06 by the tanker faction of the party, the Akuf Adun Machinery.
36:11 So he's going to be a stooge of the tanker faction.
36:15 He's a dumbo, looks like a dumbo,
36:18 but he's actually a tanker.
36:20 And that is what we not less hate.
36:22 We still have memories of what happened
36:23 in the Lehman regime.
36:26 And we think that this is just a window dressing,
36:29 trying to get a big northerner up there
36:32 and control him from the backstage.
36:34 And Ghanaians are already tired
36:36 of the very powerful president.
36:38 We don't want to try an extremely weak one
36:40 still controlled by the very systems and structures
36:43 that have brought this country to its knees.
36:45 There is no missing words about this.
36:47 This is the attempt to have an Akuf Adun tanker
36:50 to let what is going on continue.
36:52 Let me backtrace this.
36:54 When we were doing the e-levy,
36:56 president, vice president, Dr. Muhammad Bawumia
37:01 indicated that the e-levy shouldn't be taxed.
37:03 That was his position as the chairman
37:06 of the economic management team.
37:07 What did the finance minister do?
37:10 He brushed it aside and treated him with a reckless abandon
37:15 and he could not do anything.
37:18 If you are saying that this is not his record,
37:20 it means that the vice president has been his tool
37:23 all these eight years and has not been able
37:26 to assert himself and insert himself
37:28 in the governance and policymaking in this country.
37:31 He has not been able to bring his policies to bear
37:34 in the management of the country.
37:38 And he's not being projected by that same structure
37:41 that's oppressing.
37:42 You want to tell me that we should expect
37:45 something different?
37:46 No.
37:47 So I think that apart from the tough sell
37:50 that the MPP have, he was already going
37:53 to be a very difficult candidate.
37:55 I would have wished that they took this opportunity
37:57 and brought in somebody like Alan.
38:00 I said, naturally, if you wanted to,
38:03 on a normal day, look at what people normally see
38:06 are the factors of a presidential candidate
38:09 are the attributes.
38:10 Kennedy didn't follow that order.
38:12 He came out satisfied with what was going on
38:15 and was going to fix the economy, whatever it took.
38:20 Kennedy, I just came across as the kind of person
38:22 who would appoint you in the morning
38:23 and fire you in the evening.
38:24 And there are many people who think
38:25 that this is how we need such a leader.
38:28 So the MPP actually shot themselves in the foot
38:31 by doing everything to suppress him.
38:33 If you look at what happened,
38:35 can you imagine what would have been the outcome
38:39 if state machinery was not involved in this?
38:42 If all the ministers were not part of this?
38:45 If people were allowed to vote?
38:47 If all the ambassadors and who so ever did not come
38:51 from wherever they went with their constituencies
38:54 to threaten the people?
38:55 And you know, in general party elections,
38:57 you know who is voting, you know who is who.
38:59 And it's very easy to coerce them.
39:02 - All right.
39:02 - It was a very, very state choreographed elections
39:07 that almost went bank.
39:11 - All right, state choreographed elections, you call it.
39:14 Let's head back. (dramatic music)