• 5 months ago
Transcript
00:00 the season.
00:03 A doubleheader of NBA playoff action on this Wednesday night
00:10 around the Association. He's Donnie. I am bad with the two
00:13 premier NBA handicappers on this network and we get you set
00:17 for another night of a set of two games. Both game fives both
00:22 one seeds in either conference in action back on their own
00:27 for we start with the first game inside TD Garden Celtics
00:30 booked as a 14 and a half point favorite with a potential
00:34 series clinching victory tonight over Cleveland with a win
00:38 Boston back into the Eastern Conference finals for a third
00:42 consecutive year 15 points earlier this Wednesday morning
00:45 now 14 and a half in favor of the seas. The over under is
00:49 206. Let me ask you this in two ways. The arrest last time we
00:53 were in Boston game to it was the Celtics losing big on their
00:59 own home for to Cleveland as a 14 point home favorite. Let's
01:03 start with this. Is there any chance the Celtics lose outright
01:07 tonight? Once again inside TD Garden? No, because if you're
01:11 taking a look right now, let's just go fan. Do sports book
01:13 right now and say, okay, what's the points prop here for
01:15 Donovan Mitchell? It's not even listed. Well, I don't think
01:17 he's going to play tonight. So I don't think they can win this
01:19 game. And also sometimes you we do see this been in the
01:22 previous game. Cleveland didn't win the game, but they did
01:25 cover the spread. Yeah, and it's one of those where you
01:27 sort of can rally the troops for a game without your superstar
01:30 player there. Then as we know been like the bottom falls out
01:33 sooner than later. You thought that that would get your last
01:35 great effort at home and then it's a formality. The series
01:39 isn't going any longer than the next game, which means human
01:41 psychology dips in a little bit. All right, we got to travel
01:44 to Boston one more game and you get absolutely pounded in the
01:47 first half. No granted. It's the playoffs on a regular season
01:50 game in February and these guys do have a lot of pride, but
01:53 I've seen that so many times like boy, I didn't expect that
01:56 performance without your key player and then you say, oh,
01:59 well, it's supposed to lose by 20 to 25 points and they do that
02:02 tonight. That's the angle. I'm looking at what I'm actually
02:04 getting from the Cleveland Cavaliers because also on top
02:06 of that some guys that performed very well without Donovan
02:09 Mitchell. We now have tape on the way that the Cleveland
02:12 Cavaliers for sure to play without Donovan Mitchell. So a
02:15 lot of things going against the Cavaliers here for me. Yeah,
02:18 completely agree. Listen, Boston wins this series in five
02:21 games tonight. Now, the second part of that conversation is
02:24 the cover 14 and a half in favor of the C's as Donnie alluded
02:28 to the Cavaliers did not win, but they did cover as a pregame
02:33 12-point dog at home in game number 4109 102. The only time
02:38 in this set both teams have scored a hundred plus points
02:42 pushing us to an over of the shortest total that we had seen
02:45 at 204 and a hook tonight at 206 for game number five in
02:51 Boston. If you're trying to find a best bet in this game,
02:55 Donnie, if you're trying to find some value in this fifth
02:58 game where the Celtics already 14 and a half point favorite,
03:01 how do you do it? Probably going to take guards here for
03:05 Cleveland and take a look at last night. Look Garland had
03:07 40 minutes. He played 12 of 27 ends up scoring 30 points and
03:10 shot 13 three-point shots making for those. That's almost
03:13 like a carbon copy Ben what you would get out of Donovan
03:15 Mitchell in the starting lineups like, okay, I'll play
03:18 that Donovan Mitchell role, but then you take a look at the
03:20 offset guys, right? You take a look at Levert 39 minutes 9 of
03:23 18 from the floor. These are a lot of shots that they normally
03:26 wouldn't be getting because Donovan Mitchell takes those
03:28 shots at this point, but also the three-point line. Here's
03:31 what the key ingredients going to be. How do we see you need
03:34 to beat the Boston Celtics here for a 15-point dog? It's not
03:37 like let's be ultra-efficient on offense slow the game down
03:39 and score in the low block. No, it's go out shoot as many
03:42 three-point shots as you can and if we can shoot 40 of them
03:45 and make 45% we're going to be in this ballgame. So maybe it
03:49 is the three-point shots which have been the death of me here
03:51 quite frankly in the playoffs trying to match up who's going
03:54 to make those but if you are Cleveland tonight, you're not
03:57 pounding the ball down low like literally Max Struce in that
03:59 last game. I think he has first five triples and then a five
04:01 of nine. He's going to repeat that performance. Garland's
04:04 going to make more than four three-point shots. The uphill
04:07 climb is going to be nasty, but I think the pathway to
04:10 covering this line is shooting three-point shots for Cleveland.
04:13 So for me, it's not necessary looking at Boston from any
04:16 player points perspectives or any three-point shots here
04:18 because we expect good performances out of the star
04:20 players, but we always get a little bit tricky in the fourth
04:23 quarter. If you don't need those superstar players to be in
04:25 there. Why does Tatum need to get to 30 points? If he has 24
04:27 and they're already up 16 points with four minutes to play.
04:30 It's not going to be in this game. So for me Cleveland is
04:32 going to play this bell to bell and a lot of guys that aren't
04:35 used to taking a lot of shots again. We'll be able to take
04:37 those shots. That's the way I'm approaching this more from a
04:39 prop perspective from the Cavaliers than taking a look at
04:42 a side or a prop perspective from the Celtics side.
04:45 Listen, the Cavs knew that the great equalizer if they were
04:49 going to pull an upset shorthanded without Spider. And
04:51 by the way, that 14 and a half point spread does indicate
04:54 that Donovan Mitchell is not going to play tonight and no
04:56 props listed at this moment could change by the time we
04:59 tip tonight at 7 30 p.m. Eastern Time in Boston, but the
05:03 Cavs knew the great equalizer without spider was the three
05:07 point shot 48 attempted threes as a team 48 of their 94
05:14 overall field goal attempts 51.1% of Cleveland's field
05:19 goals on Monday night in game number four came from three
05:24 point range because of the volume. It gives you
05:27 opportunities then to look at the three-point numbers
05:30 Darius Garland. He attempted 13 only made for not overly
05:34 efficient his number tonight two and a half Max Struce a
05:37 great three-point shooter five of nine his three-point prop
05:41 two and a half the over has some plus money. Struce was
05:44 also great in terms of kind of orchestrating the offense a
05:46 little bit seven dimes seven boards his assist prop tonight
05:50 three and a half the over plus money. Once again do like
05:53 that look for Max Struce Jason Tatum on the other side
05:57 had not scored 30 points in a playoff game yet for the
06:01 Celtics until they took the trip to the land in game number
06:05 three. Now he scored 33 in two consecutive points prop tonight
06:09 for game number 528 and a hook DRS. Now we go to Oklahoma
06:14 City. It is game number five tonight between the Thunder and
06:17 the Mavericks in a series tied at two games all plenty more
06:20 in this game coming your way after the break, but okay see
06:23 four and a half point favorite tonight against Dallas.
06:26 Yeah, and rightfully so I should be the favorite. They're
06:28 supposed to be their number one overall seed now in their own
06:30 building. You saw them play very well in that last game to
06:33 even up the series to say hey man, we're not going back to
06:36 OKC down 3-1 now we can go back to OKC and take a series
06:39 commanding lead 3-2 once this game is done the struggle I'm
06:42 having with them so many times in the playoffs is later
06:44 yesterday. You've actually took two overs you won those even
06:46 though the games technically weren't all that high scoring
06:49 compared to regular season games. It's always interesting
06:52 to me because as you get later every possession as I talk
06:55 about means so much more at this point. So I probably
06:57 technically lean towards the under even though these are
06:59 two very good offensive teams with some superstar talent.
07:02 They can really get after it. I like the under 213, but we'll
07:04 get into some player props after the break for sure. Yeah
07:07 smallest over under of this series so far where three of
07:11 the previous four games have stayed under their pregame
07:14 total 213 that number as of right now on the fan dual
07:18 sports book between the Thunder and the Mavs. We continue
07:21 to preview the game at OKC with a best bet of that in a
07:24 series tied at two games a piece. We head to game number
07:27 five tonight in Oklahoma City between the Thunder and the
07:30 Mavs who takes this decisive game to hold that series
07:34 advantage at three games to two the Thunder booked as a
07:37 four-and-a-half point favorite inside Oklahoma City tonight
07:41 with a total at 213 Donnie earlier in the show. We talked
07:46 about the best bet for the doubleheader tonight with the
07:48 fade the public poll both you and I believe in OKC if we do
07:52 more than likely to cover this four-and-a-half point spread
07:55 they have covered in five of their six playoff win six of
07:59 their eight playoff games have stayed under you lean under
08:02 tonight with that total of 213. Now, let's talk some prompt
08:06 perspective for this game. The night cap of the doubleheader
08:10 on this Wednesday. What grabs your attention? No, it's
08:14 Superstars grab my attention tonight. I don't know. It's a
08:16 little cop. I like all you know, usually like those
08:18 secondary guys, but when the game start to get ramped up
08:20 and what I mean by ramping up is second level the playoffs
08:23 here late in the series to to where are you going to lean on
08:26 your superstar players? Not your see guy on the offense to
08:29 shoot 10 three-point shots to see if you can make five of
08:31 those. The reason I bring that up is last night. What did you
08:33 see in Madison Square Garden? Your superstar player in
08:36 Brunson's like, you know what series is tied up. It's my
08:38 time. Now. I'm going to shoot 35 plus times. What did you
08:41 see the nightcap last night? Luca Donchez going like I'm
08:43 or excuse me, Nicole Yoka. I'm not losing this like
08:46 absolutely not. We're not losing this game. It's all
08:48 going to go through me. So I've got sort of same vibe for
08:50 tonight's action, which includes the Dallas Mavericks
08:52 and OKC. It's Shea Gilders, Alexander 31 and a half. Of
08:55 course, it's going to be that level, you know, he's going to
08:57 fall between 26 points and 35 points every time he's going
09:00 to have to be huge tonight and effective in order for them
09:03 to get a victory. But on the same time, you take a look at
09:06 Donchez where he just came off of a triple-double in a loss.
09:09 You think he's going to be passive tonight. The one guy
09:11 that's always intriguing me through in the series though
09:13 is I don't know if it's just because a really good defender
09:15 is being placed on Kyrie Irving where he can't get those
09:17 shots and score 25 plus points a night to sort of get that
09:20 ride or die guy along with Luca. So I'm really focused on
09:23 Luca Donchez. I think he has to be that guy. If Dorit's going
09:26 to take out Kyrie and let you say PJ Washington is maybe not
09:29 connecting on as many three-point shots as he's hit
09:31 over the past couple games. It's got to be Luca for me. So
09:34 that plus 330 price on a triple-double really stands out
09:37 because I do believe he's going to battle this game go this
09:40 series. We have to win this game. If we want to win this,
09:43 it's got to be on the track. His usage rate is going to be
09:46 through the roof. At least five triples for PJ Washington.
09:51 The last three games for Dallas was the Mavericks leading
09:55 score in game number four. That's not necessarily a good
09:59 thing and Luca did record a triple-double and it's hard to
10:03 say triple-doubles are not great, but it was not a great
10:05 triple-double out of Luca Donchez at least from the
10:08 scoring component of it. It finishing that game just six
10:12 of 20 from the floor 27 and a half is the points prop for
10:17 Luca Donchez tonight 21 and a half number for Kyrie Irving
10:21 the lowest we have seen pregame here in the four-game set. And
10:26 when you look at Luca, it's been the struggles from deep
10:29 his best performance was game number two. He was five of
10:32 eight from three in game three another victory for Dallas.
10:35 Just one of four so not great, but didn't hoist a ton of
10:39 shots was one of eight in game number four as Dallas was
10:44 abysmal from three and not great from the free throw line
10:47 either Shea Gilgis Alexander. This is what he does 31 and a
10:51 half. Now is the points prop. Here's his four-game scoring
10:54 output in this series 29 in game 133 in game 231 in game
10:59 334 in game four. There is never that far of a bottom for
11:04 SGA when it comes to what he is going to do in the scoring
11:08 department. That's the second game tonight. Okay, CA four
11:11 and a half point favorite total 213 against the Mavericks
11:15 first game in Boston. The Celtics a heavy favorite land
11:18 14 and a half total at 206. We do not expect at this moment
11:22 Donovan Mitchell to play in game five tonight for Cleveland.
11:25 [Music]
11:26 (upbeat music)
11:28 [MUSIC]

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